Gambling On the Pro Bowl

Hello all. For today's Sunday pick, I take the following Pro Bowl bet:

NFC at AFC OVER 69
YEah, I had the over a couple years ago, when it the total was at 50, and the final score was 55-52 in OT. I like this line - I think they'll bust all through it.

I also have a big college hoops pick over at the Sedge Court Journal contest - check it out here.

-DL

Duke - North Carolina matchup and pick

I'm not even sure which way I want to go on this one. Currently, the Dookies are favored by 5 points over UNC.

Anyways, I think the pick of the day (outside of my pick over at Sedge Court Journal), is this:
Duke at North Carolina Over 155
These teams have been scoring a lot recently. So I think this is the way to go, but I could be wrong.

I guess that my ideal result is a Duke-sideline explosion, with Dick Vitale in the middle of it.

Speaking of which, did you see this picture? Duke & Arod together. Thank you Deadspin.

Sports Gambling Site Review and Recommendation - Pinnacle Sports Book

If you are new to sports gambling, and are perhaps interested in putting a bet or two down on the Super Bowl, I think you should read this post. I've now got an official partnership with the good ladies and gents over at Pinnacle Sports. In this post I talk a little about all the reasons why Pinnacle has got to be the best sports book out there (it's now my most-preferred sports book), and why I agreed to partner with them.

Why Pinnacle? Pinnacle Sports is generally known as the place for real gamblers to go play. The reason is actually pretty simple – Pinnacle consistently offers the best house edge for any players. So what does that really mean? Most sports books (online, in Vegas, or from your local bookie) offer their lines at -110. What this means is that, lets say for the upcoming Super Bowl, you bet the Pittsburgh Steelers -4 -110. That means that you think the Steelers will win by at least 4 points, and if you're right, you will win your bet at a -110 pace. Which means that you need to bet $110 to win $100 (or bet $1.10 to win $1.00). This is a universal spread, and is generally referred to as the "house edge" or the "vig."

Pinnacle Sports Book, however, currently has this line as Steelers -4 -107. Which means that you still are giving the same number of points (4), but now, you only have to bet $107 to win $100 (or $1.07 to win $1.00). This is closer to real odds, though you are still giving a little house edge. On other games, Pinnacle may have the odds as low as -103. I know, I know, you plan on winning all your bets, so it doesn't matter. Well, unless you are the next coming of Nostradamus, trust me, you're going to want to go with Pinnacle. Over time, this difference can add up significantly.

A great source to check this out is www.sportsbookreview.com which is universally acknowledged as the number one sports book review and ratings site. They are very stringent in their requirements, so it seems (though who knows how much they actually make directly from each of the books they praise). Check out their recommended list HERE.

Pinnacle also offers some other random bonuses, including a 10% signup bonus, and a 0.3% Cash Back program for Casino games (for all of you who play online blackjack). So, I highly recommend that you sign up for Pinnacle if you are new to the sports betting world. Your cash will last much longer. Just click HERE to sign up.

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Note - I have used bet365 for a long time, and I will continue to do so (along with Pinnacle), because it has some features which are pretty fun (like any-way-adjustable lines, and parlay bonuses). I will detail what these are, and how they benefit a gambler, in a later post (If you are interested, you can check out bet365 HERE). But for now, and if you're a basic bettor and want to get into the game with paying a reduced house edge on standard bets (with lines, over/unders, and moneylines), then Pinnacle is where I recommend you start.
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FYI, this was not a writeup generated by the Pinnacle Sports marketing team or anything - I wrote it myself. I really believe that Pinnacle is the best sports book to go to if you're going to start online gambling.

-DL

Gay, Gay....Gay, Gay...

I'm waiting for JJ to bring my six banger home.

There's no better moment in sports gambling when you're rooting home the final leg of your six-banger. I'll even get behind Gay-Gay for that (pardon the pun).

Tonight, Tonight

Piston -8.5 v. T-pups
Angry Pistons team comes home to feast on T-pups. Ricky Davis? Kevin McHales is prepared for an episode of "This could've been your life".....as he watches Chauncy dominate.

Suns -4.5 v. Celtics
Suns will be interested in this affair as they can head home with a winning road trip by closing out the C-minuses. Celtics are carrying Wally Weight and can't score enough points to keep up with the Nashinator and Boris Diaw.

Notre Dame +8 at the WV
The Irish have to have some good luck sooner or later, and I'm guessing its tonite. WV doesn't have the athletes that usually give the Domers trouble, so they can hang tough or potentially win this game.

Kentucky -5 at Mississippi State
The toughest part of writing about this pick is spelling Missis....What does concern me, though, is UK lack of spread closing ability. At Auburn, they let a 15 pt lead with 2 minutes remaining dwindle to 9, although still managed to cover. At home against Arkansas, they had leads of 8 with 1:35 and 46 seconds left and managed to win by only 2 and not carry my water. I expect their cushion to be big enough to avoid a slip fatal to the spread.

Marquette -4.5 v. St. Johns
Of course the Johnnies have had some notable wins (Pitt Louisville) but they pushed on road against UCONN and Marquette is the only show in Milwaukee. I like the Warriors, oops, the Golden Eagles

Duke -5 v. BC
This game gives me concern b/c Sheldon is a paper tiger inside and BC has good size at the 3-5 spots, but the Dukies love to win these games big. (For example, they've covered their last 4 ACC road games-- Georgetown was non-conference).

Is Kammron Taylor

the offspring of Chris Rock?
What I want to see during half-time of the Minny at Wisco match-up is the backwoods battle both teams' lumberjack big men. We'll use a "World's Strongest Man" type set-up.

Wisconsin:
Brian Butch
Greg Steisma
Jason Chappell

Minnesota:
Dan Coleman
Spencer Tollackson
Jonathon Williams

We'd see shit like keg toss, car lift, etc.

Back to Basics

Remember when you were a kid? You grabbed the rock, went out to the backyard and started hoisting long-range jumpers? Well, if you played organized hoop, unless you were Jimmy Chitwood, Coach Norman Dale would make you back to the charity stripe and work on your fundamentals. If you're an NBA gambler and your crystal ball is a bit cloudly, I suggest that you go back to those unequivocable rules of NBA gambling that are as certain as certain as a White Sox repeat:

1. The Pistons at home ATS. If you get early money, they are a perfect 21-0 at home ATS. And look, they're at home tonite against the Ricky Davis (Is he Spre's stunt double?)-led T-Pupps after a loss.

2. The Atlanta Hawks are an equally "perfect" 0-21 on the road ATS. Even horrible home teams like the Bulls have found a way to cover large number against this team. Where have you gone Boris Diaw, Atlanta turns its lonely eyes to you....
Sweet Jesus, this disastrous road team is now a favorite on the road against Charlotte. Somewhere, Bobcat Baz is cashing out his 401k

The 30pt NBA Rule

Here's what I've learned in the last week of NBA watching.

In an NBA game when a favorite has a 30 pt 3rd quarter point differential, you would much rather have your greenbacks on the team getting 9+ points than the team leaving them on the floor.

The defense presents the following two examples:

1. Lakers at Pistons. Pistons up by 31 early in the 3rd quarter and end up with only a 9 pt win, leaving folks like myself who got late money at -9.5 on the losing end. Now, those non-believers probably invoke the Kobe Bryant excpetion. For you, I offer:

2. Bulls at Mavs: Bulls down 69-39 in the 3rd quarter then charge back to easily win my wager.

The moral of this story, is if you're team is down in the 3rd quarter, you want them to be done big (assuming you don't bet the Knicks or an equivalent team that loves to quit).
I raise this issue to combat an alarming trend of "hail mary" bets that may not be needed. As you know, the "Hail Mary" bet is the, "oh shit, my team is down 30 with no chance of winning with number, I look to the West and gamble on a St. Mary's, Portland or Hawaii team that I've never seen." Union Jack ?

Big Ten Action

Illini at Badgers - a battle between 2 of the better teams in the Big Ten.

Here's what I like in this game...

***Illinois at Wisconsin UNDER 129.5***
Most people who follow the Big Ten know how well Wisconsin defends the Kohl Center. The Badger defense has been phenomenal this year(56ppg). The Illini defense, however, is vastly under-appreciated (#3 team in the nation, adjusted for competition) in my book.

The number of possessions will be very important in this game as well. Wisco averages 69 poss/per game (2nd in Big10), whereas Illinois averages just over 63 (10th in Big10). With Illinois's tenacious D, Bo Ryan will instruct his team to slow down and value the basketball.

Finally, Brown has struggled away from Assembly Hall (averaging 10.8 points on 29.4 percent shooting in the Illini's four road games this season).

Good luck.

-uj

Jan Record:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 4-3-0
NBA 1-1-0
Overall 7-6-0

Recap - Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

For those of us who had the under in this game, which was set at 140.0, this was a great gambling ending to a lopsided game.

When looking at the recent games, you could tell that Texas Tech wasn't going to bring anything. They had consistently been outscored by a lot on the road (but I didn't want to touch the line, b/c Kansas was giving 14 when I checked it). So I figured it would be a one-sided game, with limited end-of-game fouling (and increased totals).

I was looking good through most of the first half, with limited Texas Tech points (20 pts with just over 1 minute left). But they went on a crazy run - they scored 5 points in the last minute, with Jarrius Jackson hitting a 3-ball with one second on the clock. This made it 43-25 at half, on pace for a total of 136, just under my total.

But in the second half, the teams scored at a quicker pace. With 3 minutes left, the score was 82-52, and I had a bad feeling. With a total of 134, I was only 6 points away from my under losing. After a couple layups, with 1:54 on the clock, the total was 138. I was doomed.

But then, like a god-given miracle, I was gifted with a house of bricks. 5 missed shots later (and no fouls at all), the game clock was a 00:00, and the game was 86-52. No points scored in the last almost 2 minutes. I don't think I've ever said this before: Thank you, Bobby Knight, for the futility of your Red Raiders.

-DL

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As a reminder, I've got picks up over on the Sedge Court Journal hoops contest. I'm trying to claw my way back in it. Still under water, but I'll get out.

Mediocrity

Mediocrity - I will be happy if I can achieve it. .500 is all I want. I got there on Sat (see below), so I'm feeling ok. Of course, with the house edge, I'll be done with my cash in no time at all.

Today's Mediocre NBA pick of the day is posted here.

In the college ranks, I also like:
Louisville Cardinals +10.5 at Villanova Wildcats
The Nova squad is not that great when favored as 10pt favorite or more (2-4 ATS). Louisville has not been playing well at all, but Taquan Dean will be finally up to speed in this game. Take the points that they are giving, and throw it down on the Cards....

-DL

Saturday sprinkling

A variety of hoops picks today, see below:

NCAA:

Well, time to get back on this pony. What do you think of these picks here?

Cincy at Georgetown Hoyas -5.5
The Hoyas have been on a little roll, and they're playing at home against a relatively weak Cincy team.

Marquette +10 at Pittsburgh
The Eagles have some momentum going, and they will be covering this number in Pitt.

Arizona Wildcats at North Carolina Tarheels Under 150
This game will be slower than what we have seen from these teams recently. I also think Zona is a good pick getting the points, but take the undies here.

NBA:

New Orleans Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies -6.5
I really like the Grizz this year, and I have lost too much betting against them. The hornets have promise, no doubt, but memphis should take this one at home. Memphis is decent on one day of rest as well (7-4 ATS). Also, Chris Andersen (aka "Birdman" or "White Flight"), who was on the Hornets, was just tossed from the NBA for 2 years. Yes 2 freaking years. Does this surprise anyone else? How is it that he's the only guy to ever have been caught doing these types of drugs in the last 5 years? I don't believe it. (Good quote from the article: "He is best known for his performance in the NBA's dunk contest last year when he needed eight tries to finish his first dunk.")

New Jersey Nets at Seattle Supersonics (or is it just the Sonics?) Under 196.5
The Nets generally have been playing very slow recently, and big Vince is listed as questionable. Which means that he's out, as VC does not play through pain. I cannot see these guys putting up the number, so put your underoos on for this puppy.