Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Tonight Association

I think I like the bulls, getting a point or 1.5 at the Knicks. The bulls are fired up for this game, much more than the Larry-led knickerbockers. In fact, are the knicks ever going to be good with Isaiah and Larry together? Sports guy had a mildly interesting breakdown of how these 2 are doomed to fail as long as they are together...

Also like Charlotte getting 6.5 at Seattle. The Bobcats a nice record against the spread, and the sonics are on a 3-game losing streak...

What you think? Do you like these?

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Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Last Night Association

Got absolutely worked by the Mavs v. Raptors. I was so sure the Over of 201 (or 202 or 203) was going to happen. I was praying for OT, and there was a legit chance of it happening, but then with 2 seconds left, JTerry hit a goofy running one-hander b/c the Diggles was getting triple teamed. So my over got smacked down.

Also, I randomly took the Over of Nets v. Nuggets. It was at 193.5. Of course, it didn't hit. Well, it was close. One freakin Jacque Vaughn free throw away (he missed one with 18 seconds left). Jacque Vaughn? Why is this guy still in the league? As far as I can tell, its because he's a good free throw shooter. Nothing else that I can see in the stats. Freakin Kansas....

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Army Navy?

What the hell? You want me to comment on that? I have no idea - all I know is that Navy is basically the Domers' best win (ok, 2nd best, if you consider UofM better). Navy is giving 7, apparently. I have no idea what to do. Take the midshipmen? Sure, why not. I've been on such a roll..... What you think?

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Monday, November 28, 2005

Weird Line of the Day

Mavs at Toronto Over/Under of 201. Doesn't this sound really low? I know Josh Howard is out, but he's a pretty decent defender, and you know the Mavs can pour it on. The Raps are a bad defensive team, and Toronto scores over 100 in their home games. I like this line....

Also, not as weird, but I like the Association race-to-20s today (available at bet365). Teams that aren't that bad (NJ Nets, NOOOCH Hornets), getting decent amount of points. Not saying they'll win the game, but in the race-to-20, anything can happen.

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Hello from the Baz Man

Hello. I've been invited to talk about my gambling theories with the other 2 people reading this blog. My general theories on gambling are run with streaks and look out for weird lines when teams that don't meet up very often. Another piece of advice is to hit early season lines as the gambling community doesn't know what the hell they are doing until 2-3 weeks into a season. Its great for the Association. I guess that doesn't help much right now because the Pot O'Gold is already over.

Tonight, I like the over on the MNF game. 47.5 at the time of this writing. That seems pretty low, considering that the Colts can easily put up 30 and their defense last week looked like the Colts pre-Dungy defense. It was that bad. Splitting that 47.5 figure, you need about 24 points per team. I figure the Colts are worth 30, so I subtract 6 from that figure and the Steelers only need to score 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals to win the over. Doesn't seem that hard.

One thing that I like to do is bet on games with live betting, it enables you to hedge your bet or double down with more action if you feel confident in your original bet. Stay tuned.

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Sunday, November 27, 2005

Other Recaps of NFL

The Panthers (-3.5) really eeked one out over the sorry Bills - I really hope that they start hitting their stride, b/c I see some good juicy lines for the Panthers, home vs ATL, next week. I lost my New England bet (+3), but had a shot in it near the end, until TB threw yet another INT. The Bears really appear to be good, and they were getting a couple nice tasty points on the road in TB. Didn't need them. Next week, home vs. the Packers, Bears will likely be giving 5 or 6. We'll see what happens, but I expect they'll cover that. The Chargers game has already been covered, below....

The most amazing game of the weekend, if not that Chargers game, seemed to have been the Rams at Houston. Houston was getting 3, and through the first, well, 59:34, they didn't need it. St Louis' backup QB, Jamie Martin, got knocked out early with the good ol "blow to the head," and was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick, from Harvard. Yeah, Harvard. His first NFL snaps ever. Yeah ever.

Anyways, up 10 with 26 seconds, and Houston bettors the world around feeling good, the Texans allowed a TD to Isaac Bruce, a perfectly executed onside kick recovered by Torry Holt, and a FG with only a couple seconds left to tie it up. Houston bettors are still feeling ok, thinking that they will at least push. Well, you underestimated the Harvardarian QB, who threw a 56 yard TD pass to Kevin Curtis (Curtis made a sweet move to score it). And St. Louie bettors won it. (Fyi, turns out that this guy Fitzpatrick, who had an unbelievable day throwing for over 300, with 3/1, has been involved in this kind of comeback before).

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Saved by LaDainian

Amazin comeback by the Chargers. Had them giving 3 points, and they were losing (like real losing, not just ATS) for most of the game. But 10 points in the 4th, including an LT TD with 3:37 left, and a missed John Hall 52 yarder with 35 seconds left meant OVERtime. And that meant I was hoping for the push. But no - 2 plays in, LA-Dainian took it to the house with a 41 yard touch. And a won bet....

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NFL Lines Today

What is smelling good today?

Chargers -4 at Redskins
This one started at -3, but you could tell it was going to go up. The chargers, even if Antonion Gates doesn't play, have enough weapons to take down the 'skins. While Washington started the year as a defensive oriented team, they are now 17th in the league in points given up per game (just over 20), and are not particularly special in their yards-per-game either. The chargers are 2nd in offensive PPG (at 30), and are 5th in overall offensive yards per game. I think the SD's are too balanced for this one, and the redskins will not be able to hang.

New England +3 at Kansas City
I know that if this really does get into an offensive shootout, everyone is saying the chiefs should be favored. But I'm not so sure. Both teams defenses are in the bottom three against the pass, and both are at least decent against the run. But look at the passing yards per game - New England is 4th in the entire NFL (KC is 11th, a full 46 yards pg behind). KC, with the mix of the Priest (now gone) and Grand-ma-ma, will obviously be able to control the clock. But, I really believe that the Pats passing game will do well, as Tom Brady is having a pretty incredible year without much support as well. Take the points.

Bears +3 at Tampa Bay Bucs
This one is interesting - it appears that there is some decent money going towards the Bears. This opened at -3/-105, which meant they were already leaning towards the Bears, but now it's all the way to -3/+105 in some spots. In any event, the question is this - what will Chrissy Sims do against the vaunted Bears Defense? After a couple of mediocre games vs the Niners and Panthers, Sims had a huge day against the Redskins a couple weeks ago, throwing for 279yds and 3 TDs (rating of 119.8). But last week, against the Atlanta D, he had a rating of 54.3. Will he be able to stand up against the Bears blitzing attack? The Bears are going to stack against the Cadillac, and try and let Sims beat them over the top. I don't think this is happening, and I think that Orton will be able to make enough throws to keep the Bears on top.

The Put-Something-Down-Just-Because-It's-Nationally-Televised-Pick-of-the-Week:
NY Jets -1.5 vs NO Saints
Wow, 2 teams with nice losing streaks (Jets 5, Saints 6). What does one pick here? Both teams are similar defensively, but the Saints are significantly better at gaining yards per game.... The Saints are 2-4 ATS on the road, and the Jets are 3-1 ATS at home.... But there are 2 deciding factors, in terrible games like these: 1) Coaching. While Big-Herm is known to blow certain late-game or late-half decisions, I believe Haslett is even worse. How does he still have a job, with all the same types of mistakes, year after year (Sports Guy referred to this, saying "
if Katrina doesn't happen, there's no way Jim Haslett still has a job")? And 2), turnovers. The Jets are a terrible -9, but the Saints are even worse, at -13. Therefors, go with the JETS.

Let me know what you're thinking...








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Saturday, November 26, 2005

Toeing the Line....

Ok, so what do you do when you are trying to decide between rooting interest and cash? Clearly, you'll generally go for cash, but what if, as an extreme example, you've got $10 bucks on a game, but if you lose your bet, your favorite team gets a shot at a BCS game / into the playoffs /a bye in the first round / whatever? Clearly, you'll lose the $10 for that.

I had a 3-banger I could have hit tonight, if the Irish v. Stanfurd went under (58.5). It was pretty doable - after an early Sum-ar-ja (much simpler spelling) TD and 'furd answer, it was scary, but at half it was only to 28, and through 3 quarters was at 34. But then the 4th quarter happened, and after a couple scores back and forth, ND was lining up for a 29 yd FG, ahead 30-24, with 2:11 left. Well, ND's reliable kicker hooked it for the third miss kick of the game by the Domers. The Cardinal got the ball on their own 20, and I was torn. Hoping to keep my under of 58.5, but I am a pretty big ND hater, so I couldn't have both my bet and the Stan-win. So, what do I do? I root for Stanford, of course, and their professorial head coach. Stanford goes down the field, and scores. I'm excited, even though I've lost my bet. But, hold up. The 'furd's have scored too easily. Too quickly. In less than a minute. (Fyi, Weis called a TO with about 1:50 left, and for some reason, crack-broadcaster Fouts didn't understand why. Ah Danny, how far you, and your buddy KJ, have fallen).

It is clear that ND has too much time. So not only have I lost my bet, but I know that there's a shot that ND will actually continue to win. Not just a shot, but a guarantee. Did anyone else see Stanfurd's D on that last ND drive? Wow. Ridiculous. Lost both the bet and the game. And now annoying domers will be all excited about how good of a team they have, and how they always wanted Weis, and always denying that they were all slurping their boy Urban.
And their boy O'Leary.

Ah well, another year, more domer bs....

FYI, Chargers are still -3, but it's all the way down to -125. Steep vig, but they'll easily cover.

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Wrong again

I'm getting used to this. Freakin Sixers blew this one - 13pt lead at half, and scored only 11 pts in the 3rd. Then, in OT, AI hits a miraculous three ball to tie it up, only to see Nate the great robinson hit a buzzer beater to win it. Well, I still got the heat to look forward to....

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What I like - 11/26

College Football:
Nothing really jumps out, but I think the under for ND v. Stanfuuurd (at 58.5) is somewhat tasty. Also the Iowa St. v. Kansas over (at 41.5) looks doable - problem here is that I'll have to tune in Fox Sports. Say what you want about Comcast, but at least they got Fox Sports (and the worst damn sports show) out of our regular consciousness.

The Association:
The obvious one is the Sixers -2.5 at the Knickerbockers. This one started at -1, which I got last night, but I still like it with the extra. Knicks are no good, and both AI and Webber are healthy. Sixers are going to have a big falling-off period, so get ready for that, but is will not be against Larry Brown's team.

The only other one that caught my eye was the Heat giving 3 at the Magic. I've lost on the Heat before, but I'm going back, despite the fact that they can't win on the road (1-3 straight up, 2-2 ATS).

One last point on the League: Get in on the Chargers giving only 3 at Washington. I have a feeling this one will be either up to 3.5/4, or the vig will be at -125 on the 3 points, by game time. A solid pick.

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Friday, November 25, 2005

Unbelievable

Ok, first off, my predictions are absolutely terrible. Just an FYI. I feel like Neil O'Donnel in the super bowl. Anyways, so after blowing my wad on that, I took the race to 20 plunge. Yeah, bet365 has an NBA race-to-20 bet which is something I like to dabble in. Anyways, there were 6 lines that I liked tonight - I threw a decent amount down (something I didn't realize until after I pressed the 'confirm' button) on them individually and in various parlays. Well, it turns out that I took back 3.5 x what I bet, for a winnings of approx 2.5 x. Not bad for some random cash on the side. The likable thing abou the race-to-20s is that the odds are always heavily stacked against the underdogs, but the favorites are never playing for that. As an example, both ATL and Washington took down the race to 20, but neither actually won their....wait a minute. Did ATL really beat the pacers, in Indiana? Never mind.

On the college football front, basically I had all the right arguments, but didn't think about them long enough. Texas' run defense is not as good as their pass D, and A&M is strong in the run. Also, Colorado and Nebraska are both pretty good defensive teams. Hopefully this means Gary is on the way out. We can pray, right?

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College Football Predictions

Hey - What I like today is:

Texas -28.5 at Texas A&M
You know Texas will be ready to play this one in anticipation of the Big 12 title game, and a match with USC. Or will they overlook it, for these reasons? As has been documented, the Aggies are terrible on D (allowing 454.6 yards per game), and the Longhorns have the 2nd best offense in the NCAA, with 527 yards a game. But the more intriguing side of this game is UT's defense (ranked 6th, allowing 277.8 ypg) against Texas A&M's offense (ranked 16, at 447 ypg). The horns held a Texas Tech offense, ranked 4th, to only 17 points, but Tech and A&M are very different offenses. Tech is pass-heavy, pass-always, and pass-only (ranked 1st in NCAA in passing offense, but 106th in rushing). A&M, however, is 11th in rushing, and 66th in passing. The Texas D is better against the pass, but still top 20 against the run. Now, the Longhorns haven't really faced a half-way-decent team with a good rushing attack (don't think U-La-La qualifies). So this could pose some interesting problems for our buddies from Austin. But finally, lets look at what Texas does to mediocre opponents:

09/03/05 ULLAF W60-3 -39.5/53 W/O
09/10/05 @OHIST W25-22 1.5/45.5 W/O
09/17/05 RICE W51-10 -40.5/57 W/O
10/01/05 @MISOU W51-20 -15.5/60 W/O
10/08/05 OKLA W45-12 -14.5/50 W/O
10/15/05 COL W42-17 -16/53 W/O
10/22/05 TXTCH W52-17 -17/69.5 W/U
10/29/05 @OKLST W47-28 -37/59 L/O
11/05/05 @BAY W62-0 -30.5/56 W/O
11/12/05 KANS W66-14

First, look at some of those lines, and how much they blew through them by - 20 vs, Kansas, 31.5 v. Baylor, 18 vs the Barnett Buffaloes, etc. I think they'll take the aggies down, so I say lay the points.


Nebraska at Colorado Over 48
This one started at 46, and jumped up right away. I got it at 48 - while I don't think it's going to be a hugely high-scoring game, I think it can easily get to 50. They've both been playing to the over recently as well....

Any thoughts here?

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Recap - Turkey Day NFL

Well, that Falcons win over the sorry Marriuci-on-the-way-out Lionesses was pretty easy. I know a lot of people had that one - to the point where it was stuck on Falcons -3, but the payout was -130. Pretty heavy vig, but it was worth it. My over didn't get broken - if only the falcons had converted one more time...and the lions scored on that last drive. Well, a couple things had to happen, but it's fine. Fine.

In the real game of the day, the Broncos were giving 2.5 at Dallas. When the Broncos won the OT toss, I was actually concerned that the old Jake-the-Snake talk of him not throwing any criticial interceptions was going to come back and bite us in the ass (amusing humor Sports Pickle article here eerily predicting his 2005 candidacy for an important NFL award). But it didn't, and Mr. Heisman himself actually contributed to something. Was anyone else yelling "Don't Fumble, Don't Fumble!" to Dayne on that 55 yard run? Even though his fat-ass couldn't take it to the house, you knew it was all sewn up. So, the second game was a bit closer than hoped for, but a solid couple of wins.

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Thursday, November 24, 2005

The Association Tonight

Quickly, can't get away from those Cavs while they've been so hot. They definitely could win this game outright, at Pacers, getting 3.5 points. I've got that and the moneyline (currently at +140) mixed up in several cross-sport parlays.

I'd stay away from the Lakers and Sonics. The lakers are a one-man team, but when Kobe is really really on, it's enough. With the sonics, though, you never know. They obviously have some major problems, but they have shown the ability to beat mediocre opponents. Will Ray Allen step up in his ongoing Kobe feud? It'll be interesting to watch, but stay away.

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Turkey Day Picks - The League

One of the best days to watch football is always Thanksgiving Day. While the Turkey is roasting / baking / deep-fat-frying you can watch the early game, and then after dinner when the turkey sleep-juice hits you, you'll be able to settle into the nearest couch to watch the last half of the second game. While generally, the Lions and the 'Boys mean that the games won't be particularly interesting, we got lucky (from a football perspective) this time and hit on Lions v. Broncos. But our real luck is in the lines....

Atlanta -3 at Detroit
Clearly, the lions are not a good team, especially with Joe-Ha at the helm. And Ronny Mexico hasn't had much opportunity to really showcase his ability to run this year. Thanksgiving Day, after two straight losses where he tried throwing the ball (fairly successfully too), is where it'll happen. ATL's defense isn't as good as last year, but you know they'll be looking forward to a dropping-back-Joey, which will happen as long as they can contain Kevin Jones. I expect KJ to get his, but the Falcons will take it in the end.

Atlanta at Detroit Over 43.5
This started at 41, and just seemed way too low for these 2 teams. It has crept up over the past couple days, but you have to think these teams can still get it done. Both of these teams have decent offensive capabilities, and while I'm expecting a pick or 3 out of Joey, I think that they'll still be able to put up some points with Kevin Jones.

Denver -2.5 at Dallas
This one was tough. Clearly the Cowboys are a pretty good team, especially defensively. The Broncos are , as always, one of the best running teams in the NFL, and has been well documented, Jake-No-Mistake has kept his INTs down and been able to pass effectively. But, I still think that Denver has the ability to blow the 'Boys out.


I am saddened we're not getting turducken any more though. Aren't you?


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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Recap - late Weds Night Association

Looks like the Toronto Raptors are on a money streak - 4 in a row now. Getting double digits on the road for the Raps may have been the way to go. But isn't "Always bet against Jalen Rose" a cardinal rule? So confusing.

Spurs covered against an outmatched GS Warriors team, to break their losing streak (ATS).

And Sacramento has been playing much better as of late - they took down the Nets. The over of 190.5 got blown through, thankfully for yours truly. Sacto is on a roll of 5 straight ATS. May be time to jump on that bandwagon....?

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Recap - Yikes

Wow, I got smacked around by the Pistons. So much for the nuggets holding it close with that good defense. Losing that Under by almost 20 points did not help...

At least the Suns held. These Rockets just cannot close a game at all. Pretty pitiful, actually.

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The Association Tonight (11/23/05)

What is it that we like in the Association (that is, the National Basketball Association) tonight? My thoughts are this (picks in Bold):

Denver +10 at Detroit
I just think that even though the Pistons are coming off their loss, Denver is a good enough team to keep this close. Both are defensive teams, which also leads to....

Denver at Detroit Under 186.5
Parlay these two, I think it'll work.

Phoenix Even Money at Houston
Houston is not that good, and T-Mac is still questionable.

Any other thoughts?

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Welcome!

Welcome to Doing Lines - The Sports Gambling Blog. As I have tried to indicate in the header bar, Doing Lines is intended to be a blog not only about our recommendations, hot picks, stone-cold-lead-pipe-locks (hope it's not trademarked), or who-I-like-tonight-and-I-don't-mean-Al-Michaels, but its also to recap those critical end-of-game wins or losses that really make sports gambling so much fun (well that, and the cash).

My focus will be on the NFL, College Football, the NBA, College Basketball (mens), and MLB. Of course, I would love to hear about your own experiences with any other sports, in particular hockey, golf, and soccer. If you are dabbling in the WNBA, or the NBDL, then you are more adventurous than me, my friend.

When I recap the big wins and losses for any games, I would want to hear about your own experiences as well. Did you skip your cousin's birthday to catch the last quarter of the Colts game, only to see your under of 52 get blown through? Did your wife throw you out of the house after you ruined anniversary plans by checking the Nuggets-Spurs score every 10 minutes on your cell phone? Did you find out about the big Pac-10 game 2 days later, only after you realized that you had laid the bet down after a late night of partying? Tell me, I'd love to hear about it. Eventually, I hope to have a separate forum set up, but for now, just post your comments to this site.

Any questions, please feel free to email me at doinglines@yahoo.com.

I hope this works. And thanks for your thoughts.

DL

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