Friday, November 25, 2005

College Football Predictions

Hey - What I like today is:

Texas -28.5 at Texas A&M
You know Texas will be ready to play this one in anticipation of the Big 12 title game, and a match with USC. Or will they overlook it, for these reasons? As has been documented, the Aggies are terrible on D (allowing 454.6 yards per game), and the Longhorns have the 2nd best offense in the NCAA, with 527 yards a game. But the more intriguing side of this game is UT's defense (ranked 6th, allowing 277.8 ypg) against Texas A&M's offense (ranked 16, at 447 ypg). The horns held a Texas Tech offense, ranked 4th, to only 17 points, but Tech and A&M are very different offenses. Tech is pass-heavy, pass-always, and pass-only (ranked 1st in NCAA in passing offense, but 106th in rushing). A&M, however, is 11th in rushing, and 66th in passing. The Texas D is better against the pass, but still top 20 against the run. Now, the Longhorns haven't really faced a half-way-decent team with a good rushing attack (don't think U-La-La qualifies). So this could pose some interesting problems for our buddies from Austin. But finally, lets look at what Texas does to mediocre opponents:

09/03/05 ULLAF W60-3 -39.5/53 W/O
09/10/05 @OHIST W25-22 1.5/45.5 W/O
09/17/05 RICE W51-10 -40.5/57 W/O
10/01/05 @MISOU W51-20 -15.5/60 W/O
10/08/05 OKLA W45-12 -14.5/50 W/O
10/15/05 COL W42-17 -16/53 W/O
10/22/05 TXTCH W52-17 -17/69.5 W/U
10/29/05 @OKLST W47-28 -37/59 L/O
11/05/05 @BAY W62-0 -30.5/56 W/O
11/12/05 KANS W66-14

First, look at some of those lines, and how much they blew through them by - 20 vs, Kansas, 31.5 v. Baylor, 18 vs the Barnett Buffaloes, etc. I think they'll take the aggies down, so I say lay the points.

Nebraska at Colorado Over 48
This one started at 46, and jumped up right away. I got it at 48 - while I don't think it's going to be a hugely high-scoring game, I think it can easily get to 50. They've both been playing to the over recently as well....

Any thoughts here?

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

Bet It Live With bet365!


Blogger Baz The Man said...

Well, I tell you what I did today. I bet Nebraska getting 15.5 points. The line went up to 17. I don't understand that at all. Colorado is a POS team, and they are dropping a stink bomb right now.

I don't understand how Nebraska was such an underdog in this game.

I guess your Texas prediction was dead wrong. I had bet the Aggies +28.5 and in a seperate bet, the under at 69.

I liked the aggies because it was at A/M and is a rivalry game. The history of this series is that it is always relatively close, or at least closer than it should be compared to the relative strengths of teams.

Of course, the over should have been blown much earlier, but there were a bunch of PATS. I didn't see AM scoring as many points as they did, and I lost that bet by 1 or .5 points. Can't remember each.

5:32 PM CST  

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