Sunday, November 27, 2005

NFL Lines Today

What is smelling good today?

Chargers -4 at Redskins
This one started at -3, but you could tell it was going to go up. The chargers, even if Antonion Gates doesn't play, have enough weapons to take down the 'skins. While Washington started the year as a defensive oriented team, they are now 17th in the league in points given up per game (just over 20), and are not particularly special in their yards-per-game either. The chargers are 2nd in offensive PPG (at 30), and are 5th in overall offensive yards per game. I think the SD's are too balanced for this one, and the redskins will not be able to hang.

New England +3 at Kansas City
I know that if this really does get into an offensive shootout, everyone is saying the chiefs should be favored. But I'm not so sure. Both teams defenses are in the bottom three against the pass, and both are at least decent against the run. But look at the passing yards per game - New England is 4th in the entire NFL (KC is 11th, a full 46 yards pg behind). KC, with the mix of the Priest (now gone) and Grand-ma-ma, will obviously be able to control the clock. But, I really believe that the Pats passing game will do well, as Tom Brady is having a pretty incredible year without much support as well. Take the points.

Bears +3 at Tampa Bay Bucs
This one is interesting - it appears that there is some decent money going towards the Bears. This opened at -3/-105, which meant they were already leaning towards the Bears, but now it's all the way to -3/+105 in some spots. In any event, the question is this - what will Chrissy Sims do against the vaunted Bears Defense? After a couple of mediocre games vs the Niners and Panthers, Sims had a huge day against the Redskins a couple weeks ago, throwing for 279yds and 3 TDs (rating of 119.8). But last week, against the Atlanta D, he had a rating of 54.3. Will he be able to stand up against the Bears blitzing attack? The Bears are going to stack against the Cadillac, and try and let Sims beat them over the top. I don't think this is happening, and I think that Orton will be able to make enough throws to keep the Bears on top.

The Put-Something-Down-Just-Because-It's-Nationally-Televised-Pick-of-the-Week:
NY Jets -1.5 vs NO Saints
Wow, 2 teams with nice losing streaks (Jets 5, Saints 6). What does one pick here? Both teams are similar defensively, but the Saints are significantly better at gaining yards per game.... The Saints are 2-4 ATS on the road, and the Jets are 3-1 ATS at home.... But there are 2 deciding factors, in terrible games like these: 1) Coaching. While Big-Herm is known to blow certain late-game or late-half decisions, I believe Haslett is even worse. How does he still have a job, with all the same types of mistakes, year after year (Sports Guy referred to this, saying "
if Katrina doesn't happen, there's no way Jim Haslett still has a job")? And 2), turnovers. The Jets are a terrible -9, but the Saints are even worse, at -13. Therefors, go with the JETS.

Let me know what you're thinking...

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