Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Big Ten Action

Illini at Badgers - a battle between 2 of the better teams in the Big Ten.

Here's what I like in this game...

***Illinois at Wisconsin UNDER 129.5***
Most people who follow the Big Ten know how well Wisconsin defends the Kohl Center. The Badger defense has been phenomenal this year(56ppg). The Illini defense, however, is vastly under-appreciated (#3 team in the nation, adjusted for competition) in my book.

The number of possessions will be very important in this game as well. Wisco averages 69 poss/per game (2nd in Big10), whereas Illinois averages just over 63 (10th in Big10). With Illinois's tenacious D, Bo Ryan will instruct his team to slow down and value the basketball.

Finally, Brown has struggled away from Assembly Hall (averaging 10.8 points on 29.4 percent shooting in the Illini's four road games this season).

Good luck.

-uj

Jan Record:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 4-3-0
NBA 1-1-0
Overall 7-6-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Recap - Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

For those of us who had the under in this game, which was set at 140.0, this was a great gambling ending to a lopsided game.

When looking at the recent games, you could tell that Texas Tech wasn't going to bring anything. They had consistently been outscored by a lot on the road (but I didn't want to touch the line, b/c Kansas was giving 14 when I checked it). So I figured it would be a one-sided game, with limited end-of-game fouling (and increased totals).

I was looking good through most of the first half, with limited Texas Tech points (20 pts with just over 1 minute left). But they went on a crazy run - they scored 5 points in the last minute, with Jarrius Jackson hitting a 3-ball with one second on the clock. This made it 43-25 at half, on pace for a total of 136, just under my total.

But in the second half, the teams scored at a quicker pace. With 3 minutes left, the score was 82-52, and I had a bad feeling. With a total of 134, I was only 6 points away from my under losing. After a couple layups, with 1:54 on the clock, the total was 138. I was doomed.

But then, like a god-given miracle, I was gifted with a house of bricks. 5 missed shots later (and no fouls at all), the game clock was a 00:00, and the game was 86-52. No points scored in the last almost 2 minutes. I don't think I've ever said this before: Thank you, Bobby Knight, for the futility of your Red Raiders.

-DL

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As a reminder, I've got picks up over on the Sedge Court Journal hoops contest. I'm trying to claw my way back in it. Still under water, but I'll get out.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Monday, January 30, 2006

Mediocrity

Mediocrity - I will be happy if I can achieve it. .500 is all I want. I got there on Sat (see below), so I'm feeling ok. Of course, with the house edge, I'll be done with my cash in no time at all.

Today's Mediocre NBA pick of the day is posted here.

In the college ranks, I also like:
Louisville Cardinals +10.5 at Villanova Wildcats
The Nova squad is not that great when favored as 10pt favorite or more (2-4 ATS). Louisville has not been playing well at all, but Taquan Dean will be finally up to speed in this game. Take the points that they are giving, and throw it down on the Cards....

-DL

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Saturday, January 28, 2006

Saturday sprinkling

A variety of hoops picks today, see below:

NCAA:

Well, time to get back on this pony. What do you think of these picks here?

Cincy at Georgetown Hoyas -5.5
The Hoyas have been on a little roll, and they're playing at home against a relatively weak Cincy team.

Marquette +10 at Pittsburgh
The Eagles have some momentum going, and they will be covering this number in Pitt.

Arizona Wildcats at North Carolina Tarheels Under 150
This game will be slower than what we have seen from these teams recently. I also think Zona is a good pick getting the points, but take the undies here.

NBA:

New Orleans Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies -6.5
I really like the Grizz this year, and I have lost too much betting against them. The hornets have promise, no doubt, but memphis should take this one at home. Memphis is decent on one day of rest as well (7-4 ATS). Also, Chris Andersen (aka "Birdman" or "White Flight"), who was on the Hornets, was just tossed from the NBA for 2 years. Yes 2 freaking years. Does this surprise anyone else? How is it that he's the only guy to ever have been caught doing these types of drugs in the last 5 years? I don't believe it. (Good quote from the article: "He is best known for his performance in the NBA's dunk contest last year when he needed eight tries to finish his first dunk.")

New Jersey Nets at Seattle Supersonics (or is it just the Sonics?) Under 196.5
The Nets generally have been playing very slow recently, and big Vince is listed as questionable. Which means that he's out, as VC does not play through pain. I cannot see these guys putting up the number, so put your underoos on for this puppy.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Thursday, January 26, 2006

NCAA Picks for Thursday

Gents,

I'm making a little comeback in January. Let's see if we can keep this thing rolling. Couple of picks I like for tonight.

--UCLA vs Oregon OVER 128.5--
Both teams play with a very slow tempo (both in the bottom third of all teams in the NCAA). Upon further review, however, in the same link, you will find evidence that both teams are offensively efficient (not particularly efficient on defense). I think Afflalo will bounce back from his rare 1-9 outing against WV. Take the over.

--Blue Devils -11 vs Virginia Tech--
Not much to write about in this game. Duke bounces back -- refocused after losing at Georgetown -- and beats up on the Hokies by double-digits.

Jan results:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 3-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Michigan vs Michigan State

Ladies, the pick of the night is...

Spartans vs Wolverines UNDER 140.5

Surprisingly, both teams play with a slow tempo. Only NU and the Illini average less possessions per 40 mins.

Look at their recent results. The line should be somewhere around 135.

DL - good luck with your bet. I think the Spartys pull out it off, but I'm more confident in the under.

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 2-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Jacked Up Line of the Night

My friends, we have yet again a jacked up line of the night, this time in the NBA:

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 at New Orleans Hornets
The Spurs, granted, are a much better home than road team. And granted, both Manu (or is it "El Contusione"?) and Big Shot Bob are on the shelf for this contest. Yes, the Spurs played last night. However, it's the damn spurs against the weak hornets. Take the Spurs.
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Another NBA pick I like:
Denver Nuggets -5 at Portland Trailblazers
These Nuggets are perplexing, yes. But they have been on fire recently, winning their last 6 in a row. The T-blazers haven't been so bad, but I see them as a streaky team, and they just had their 4-game winning run snapped. Bet it on the Nuggs.
----------------------------------------

Another pick that I like tonight is in the NCAA - the Michigan State Spartans visiting the Wolverines. I give a little more detail over at the Sedge Court contest (where I made this the Don't-Be-A-Gurly-Man pick of the week), but I think the Spartans are on a big-time roll.


There's a theme, here, taking the road favorites. What do you think?

DL

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Hoosiers vs Hawkeyes

-- Indiana Hoosiers vs Iowa Hawkeyes - Over 129

I think IU bounces back from back-to-back 62 pt showings and puts big points on the board. Mike Davis drives me crazy. An example -- his 2nd-half near collapse vs Illinois earlier this year (IU did collapse ATS in that game. Guess where my money was?). But he is considering inserting Wilmont back into the starting lineup which should provide a spark.

I know that IU has missed the over in 5 of their 6 road games this year, but IU's offense has scored approximately 70 pts a game over the past 5 and Iowa's defense that has given up 69 over the same period.

I tend to agree with JoeJackson. Iowa is not good. Really, if you look at their results. They have 1 solid win (over Illinois) and two OK wins (against NC State in a horrible shooting performance and against an 'at-the-time-was-overrated' Kentucky).

So, IU starts the night off right with an early lead. Then, Iowa gets back in the game after IU serves up free shots of 1 part Mike-Davis-stupidity / 1 part Killingsworth back-pain. I really don't know how this party ends. (I do want to take the IU moneyline (+135) in this game, but I'm still rehydrating from my last Mike Davis hangover).

-uj

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Hot or Not?

as we know, good gambling is about catching teams on runs or rolls. with college, you never know who joined the century club the nite before (i'm not talkin' wilt here) or, in the nba, who put their hot poker in the backside of some hotel's hired help. you just never know. but, here's what we do know and teams i expect to ride through the week:

Who's Not Hot:

'Cuse: Time to pick a new way to get your vitamin C. the orange has been squeezed, flopping at home against UCONN and then tumbling at 'Nova and Pitt. We're talking 0-3 ATS ugly. The hottest thing in Syracuse is still Jimmy Boeheim's wife. Not bad for a guy who looks like the mechanical mouse that just stepped off the Chuckee Cheese stage.

The 'Cuse has bottomed out. BUT, look for them to get healthy at home the same way MSU did after going 0-2 ATS on the road against IL and WI

Iowa: Steve Alford is not a good coach. The only thing worse is his skin. Can you say Pro-Activ? They're 0-3 ATS in their last three, not covering at home against Minny, and then failing miserably at PSU and MSU. Look for their slide to continue. Their starting five of 28 year-old white boys are tired.

Louisville: They'll need more than Taquaen Dean to get started back up. After Louie Carneseca and Marc Jackons willed the Johnnies to a home floor win over the Red-birds, they failed to parlay gimmick Gameday mojo into competitiveness against UCONN.


Who's Hot

MSU: Looked like Coach Izzo took his team of heartless lions to see the wonderful wizard and came away with some heart. MSU may have turned the corner against the BuckNuts (thank you, Mr. Moneyline) and then played well against MSU. If you get a number of less than three at Ann Arbor tomorrow nite, jump on it. They need another road win.

Texas: Don't look now, but the team that looked like Mack Brown was on the bench against Duke and Tennessee must have put Vince at the point alongside Tucker. Texas is rolling ATS. Look for that to continue. Especially at home. I'm not sold on the Longhorns on the road. Not yet. Unless they face a Gary Barnett coached team.

The WV. Have to give the Big East some love. The mounties looked like Moses on Mr. Jinx (meet the parents 2) in los angeles and throttled a solid marquette team at home. I like them giving numbers this week, especially when they host teams in the backwoods.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Monday, January 23, 2006

Extra Free Basketball Picks for Tonight

OK, so I've already posted about one of these, but I'll throw another here too:

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers -4
I think you have to take Pitt in this game. I know that Pitt just lost to the Johnnies, but the 'Cuse has not been playing well at all. Did anyone else see Gerry-Mac crying on the bench at the end of the Villanova game? What was the deal with that? Anyways, the Orange have talent, but not enough to hang with Pitt's big bodies inside. I've already posted this as one of my picks over at the Sedge Court contest.

New Jersey Nets Pick'em at Utah Jazz
The Jazz have been playing poorly as of late, and in particular their defense has been sub-par, allowing 104 over the last 5 (season average of 92.9). While the have not been playing particularly spectacularly against the spread (3-7 in their last 10), they have won 6 of those games, as well as 3 of the last 4. I do not think the Jazz can run like the Nets will be able to, and there is good value in this line. Take the New Jersey Nets. And the Damn Vince can Dunk Act (aka the DVDA).

-DL
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Check some other sites here:
JT Sneaks is on Pitt, but disagrees with my NBA play.
WagerKing is on Pitt too, as is Sedge Court poster Shadow.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Hoops Picks Contest at Sedge Court

Just a reminder that I'm participating in the Sedge Court Journal handicapping contest, and it starts off today. I'll keep you updated with when I throw a pick over there, so you can know what to bet against.... The official rules are right here.

I'm working on a pick or two for tonight, but I've got some other stuff going on. Check back later.

-DL

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Sunday, January 22, 2006

College Hoops Pick - On Championship Sunday?

Yes, that's right. I'm looking into some college hoops on this glorious Sunday, and I've found some good value betting against Bobby Huggins' old squad of Bearcats:

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +8.5 at Cincinnati Bearcats

I fully believe that Rutgers has a good chance to actually win this game, but I'll still take the points. Cincy has not been playing well at all, and Rutgers actually played Pitt fairly tough (before having the lead extended late and losing ATS). Cincy has not been playing well at all, with losses to Xavier and the 'Cuse (as well as an excusable loss to the UConn Huskies). Take the Scarlet Knights, folks.

-Doing Lines

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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NFL - AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

What will happen in this mighty match of two running offenses against two run-stopping defenses? This has gotten a lot of hype, but as you'll see here, while the Broncos and Steelers are ranked 2nd and 3rd in rushing yards per game, the Broncos actually allow 4.0 yards per rush which is 15th in the league. Pittsburgh is first at 3.4 YPR. So why do teams rush fewer number of times against the Broncos? Maybe because they have the 29th rated passing defense (in yards per game) at 227.7, which means that overall, the Broncos have the 15th rated defense in yards per game. The Steelers are fourth.

So, what is the number one prediction for this game? The line, as of right now, is Steelers +3 with at least +100 on the back end. I think that you need to take the Steelers money line. According to Moneyliners, during these playoffs, the straight up winners are 8-0 ATS. Or another way to put it - if you bet on the underdog and you won your bet, they won the game. Which means that if you're considering any underdog, you might as well throw it down on the Moneyline. As Moneyliner is doing, for both games. I think I'll ride with him on this one too.

But, with greater weight, I will throw down on the Over 41.0 in this game. I believe that these teams will bust through this, especially with the Steelers able to throw the ball (just not towards Champ).


----------------------------------------------------

Check other NFL free picks, besides Moneyliners, at our buddies Online Sports Bettor, JT Sneaks, and a couple by the Sedge Court Journal crew.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Saturday, January 21, 2006

A plethora of Saturday college hoops picks

After Union Jack and I threw up that O-fer yesterday, we need some comeback picks. I've got the following smattering of lines that I like today (well, beginning with the afternoon games, due to my late rising time), in the NCAA:

West Virginia Mountaineers +2.5 at UCLA Bruins
Gotta love the Mountaineers with their array of game. And with Pittsnogle (even though his wife can apparently drop into labor at any second). I like WV to take this game down, even if it is in Pauley.
preview

UConn Huskies at Louisville Cardinal Under 144.5
I just don't think the Cardinal can score without Taquan Dean on the team. They have averaged 64.5 in the three games without him (including a 81 pt game against UC Davis).
preview

Cal Bears +7.5 at Arizona Wildcats
I just think that the Bears have been underachieving throughout the Pac-10 season, and they have the ability to pound it inside with Leon Powe. Look for the moneyline on this one as well.
preview

Syracuse Orange +8 at Villanova Wildcats
Villanova has yet to show that they can blow anyone in the Big East out. Their closest was a 9 pointer at Louisville (who is clearly overrated). Take the Orange (and the Irishman), but you may want to tease it a bit. Also, pray that Billy Raftery is doing the game.
preview

Oregon State at Washington State Over 119.5
The Beavers are playing better than people think, even without Lamar Hurd (starting pg). You may want to take them getting the 7+ the hook as well, up north. There will be offense in this game.
preview

What do you think?

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Friday, January 20, 2006

The NBA Streak

Alright, now as I've stated before, the NBA isn't my cup-of-tea. But I'm undefeated. I'm perfect. Let's see how long this can last...

--Memphis -3.0 at Philadelphia--

Grizzly-Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two squads. Philly has been playing pretty piss-poor as of late, losers of their last four ATS and 2-8 ATS in the past 10.

DL, FYI, I will join my Memphis pick with your Nets and Golden Eagle (Wager King likes Marquette as well) selections for my first ever patent bet.

Come bet with us. Heck, it's better than the market these days.

Jan results:

NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 1-0-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Friday Night Lights - Big East Matchup

Big (and only) matchup in the Grande-East tonight, as the non-Charlie Weis-led Notre Dame Fighting Irish (yes, I miss John Macleod too) visit the Marquette Golden Eagles for a fun three-bombing. The Irish are coming off a big win over Providence (ooooooooh). Apparently Brady and Laura's long lost nephew Chris Quinn went off, and Colin Falls dropped some bombs on the Friars (apparently that's all he does - 127 of his 165 field goal attempts are from distance). ND shot 61% from behind the arc in that game.

The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, just handled the DePaul Demons in Chicago (well, Rosemont actually), with Steve Novak dropping 24 and a solid contribution from Dominic James.

I have see ND play at home, I've seen them play on the road. They are not a good basketball team - they have lost some serious in-conference games. I believe in Marquette in this game. Pick is:
Notre Dame at Marquette -3.5

As Al McGuire said, "When I was losing, they called me nuts. When I was winning, called me eccentric."

Call me eccentric, baby.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Back on the Horse

So, after getting tossed around for a while, much like Eminem and Kim Mathers, I'm jumping right back on the horse. That's right, my Doing Lines friends, I'm going back to the NBA. I must be some kind of glutton for punishment....

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New Jersey Nets -1.5 at Boston Celtics
I know the Celtics are on a roll against the spread right now (6 in a row), and the Nets have not been doing well (2-6 in their last 8, ATS). But over those 8 games, the Nets are actually 5-3 straight up. The Celts, in their 6 ATS wins are actually 2-4 SU. With a line as low as 1.5, I believe that you always have to bet on the team that is playing better overall. I'm hooking this horse up to the run-and-gun Nets. Here's a preview.

Giddy Up. Or Whinny. Neigh? OK, Susim tsohalim.......

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Screwed by the Lakers

OK, I'm fine losing that bet last night, generally. I understand that the Sacramento Kings played better than I expected, and that's fine. So they won the game by 9 points (and beat my bet by 11.5). But the goddamn Lakers were up by 5 with 35 seconds left, after soon-to-be-hated Lamar Odom threw down a three-bomb off a nice Kobe feed. So feeling good........

But then Chris Mihm fouled out, sending Brad Miller to the line. Which led to this most-frightening statement in the play-by-play log:

0:32 Chris Mihm shooting foul (Brad Miller draws the foul)
0:32 Kwame Brown enters the game for Chris Mihm

Oh god. Even though I was up 2 points over my pick, I realized I was betting, at that point, on unstable Kwame Brown and fire-it-up Lamar Odom.

Naturally, (after a miss and a make by Brad Miller at the line) this is what transpires after that, with the Lakers up by 4 and 32 seconds left:

  1. Lamar Odom drives the ball into the lane with 17 seconds on the shot clock. Doug Collins, the whole Laker bench, the entire LA Lakers fan base, and every single fool who bet on this sorry team wonders why the hell he's going so early. Of course, he's called for a charge (the correct call) with 22 seconds left in the game (14 on the shot clock). After the game, Lamar said, "I take the blame for that one. I should have run the clock down a little bit more. First time in a long time my aggressiveness beat me." Thanks, Lamar.
  2. Mike Bibby gets wide open for a three pointer, only 4 seconds into the play, after getting a simple screen from Brad Miller. The screen got Smush Parker, so Kwame Brown, the man 'sticking' Brad Miller, is supposed to extend out. He wasn't even close, playing with his moody self in the middle of the key. Bibby drops the 3, and it's a 1 point game, with 18 seconds remaining.
  3. After Kobe gets fouled and makes both free throws, the Kings have the ball at half-court with 13 seconds left. Lets recap, up to this point, where we are. The Kings are up by 3 points. I have the Lakers giving 2.5. All I need, personally, is for the Kings to miss. From the Lakers perspective, you expect they'll go for the 3 ball. So, if you're the Lakers (including, last I checked, Kwame Brown), I'm pretty sure you guard the three point line. Well, our buddy Kwame came through again, and left Brad Miller (who is known for his outside, though not necessarily 3-point, touch) wide open for a three. Which leads to a tie game (and disturbing celebrations like this).
  4. Lakers have the ball with 4 seconds left in regulation. And the 'most-clutch' late-game shooter since Jordan. So, our buddy Lamar is supposed to get the ball and drop it to the Kobe-ster for a last second (hopefully) three-ball. Lamar himself decides to take it, even though Kobe is very available (i.e. wide open) to drop it to. Bad brick. Leads to overtime, but at that point I knew I was fu**ed. Kings won going away.

Absolutely f'n ridiculous. I would be ashamed to be a fan of this team. I'm already ashamed to have bet on 'em.

Thanks for listening...

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My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Thursday, January 19, 2006

A Bit Knicked Up

Now, I'll be the first one to admit that the NBA isn't exactly Union Jack's forte. Rarely do I have a strong opinion on the subject. Instead, I typically ride on the coat-tails of my mates Doing Lines and WindyCityParlay.

But, I like the Pistons to cover tonight.

-- Pistons - 10.5 over the Knicks --

1) Antonio Davis will likely be sitting this contest out.

2) Along with Stephon Marbury.

3) And Detroit is rolling right now (all season for that matter). And they are playing against Larry Brown.

4) Not to mention the Knicks are coming off an overtime loss to the Bulls last night.

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 0-0-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Los Angeles' Black Mamba Lakers

Ok, this is the first post to touch on the Lakers since Mr. Black Mamba made up with Shaq-Fu. That was all well and good, but the overlooked story of that game was Kobe and the Lakers handling the Miami Heat relatively easily. It seems that the Los Angeles men in gold have really turned the corner (6-1 SU in their last 7) led by Captain Zen.

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Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 at Sacramento Kings
Tonight, the Lakers are going against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings came off a blowout win over the Phoenix Suns, with ridiculous nights from K-Mart (no, not that one, this one) and Francisco Garcia (yes, Franky, they miss you over in Louisville. But they'll only accept you if you stop writing circumcision articles*).

In any event, for this game, I expect Kobe Bryant to be pumped up for a late-night battle against the old-rivals Sacto Kings. Looks like Peja is going to play, but I don't think the Queens will bring the same defensive intensity they did last game (held the Suns to 37.5%).

I take the Lakers.

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*Good god. Did you see that article? Francisco discusses the "triple whammy" of losing sensitivity after circumcision. This, my friends, is really frightening stuff. Why does Franky G know so much about this? Was this Rick Pitino's motivational technique?

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Late day pick (yeah, it's taken me all day to get over the IU / U of I result)...

---Wisconsin at Ohio State Under 139.5---

At first glance, my numbers suggest the total for this game should be about 140. But, upon further review, Ohio State's recent offensive numbers include a Double OT game against MSU and a 100pt blowout against PSU.

OSU wins 63-60, or something like that...

Oh, and DL, I'll roll with you on the Exotic Feline train.

Jan results:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-1-0

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

Bet It Live With bet365!

Hoops picks on Wednesday

A couple treats for the hoops fan - both NBA and NCAA.

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Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 at Indiana Pacers
The battle of 2 injury-plagued teams. This is also my pick of the week over at the Sedge Court contest. The Bobcats are a good covering team, especially when they are getting these kinds of points: as a greater-than 8 point dog, the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS. As a greater-than 8 point favorite, the Pacers are 1-4 ATS.
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Pittsburgh Panthers -2.5 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
OK, Pitt is 14-0 overall, and Rutgers 12-4. Rutgers may play somewhat better at home, but I don't seeing them being able to stop the Panthers, and the quickness of Carl Krauser. From what I can tell, it seems like Rutgers, and especially Quincy Douby, enjoys to drop the three-bombs. Pitt will need to be able to defend against that, and play inside-outside with Aaron Gray and Krauser.

Well, that's my guess, after seeing zero of either teams' games this year. Bet on the Panthers.
-----------------------

Big-10 has got me down recently, so I'm not sure what to do with the Wisconsin Badgers v. Ohio State Buckeyes. What do you think? Badgers are getting 4-and-a-half in C-bus.....

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Getting Jacked in the Big 10

Now, to be fair, I missed my bet by a good 13 points, so I didn't have such a good night with the Illinois v. Indiana match in the NCAA. But, dedicated poster Union Jack had a rougher evening.

Union had Mike Davis' squad giving the 2 plus the hook, and he was looking good. With six-and-a-half left, the home team Hoosiers were up by a tenner, and the two senior Illini had 4 fouls each. But a run by last year's runner-up national champions cut the lead to 2 with a minute remaining. The Indiana home team had the ball, however, and after an exchange of possessions with no points scored, they went inside to big Marco Killingsworth, who was hacked. Marco calmly stepped to the line and clanged the first, but dropped the second, with 20 seconds left.

The Illini then went for the 3-bomb, but Dee couldn't connect. Jamar Smith however dropped in the tip shot, and the Hoosiers were only up 1. So, Union Jack is hoping for both free throws by the Hoosiers, with Robert Vraden stepping to the line. First drops. Second clangs. Final spread is 2. Union's bet is Jacked.

Kicker: this line ended up at 1.5. So others out there (who shall remain nameless) may have won this bet....

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Tuesday, January 17, 2006

College Hoops Big 10 gambling mess

What is the deal with the Big 10, anyways? Are these teams (outside of the Wisco Badgers) really actually good? Or are they just impressing themselves (and AP voters) by beating a higher-ranked in-conference team one day and losing to a lower-ranked in-conference team the next? Look at the conference's middle of the pack in conference play:
  • Illini - beat Michigan & MSU, lost to Iowa.
  • Indiana - beat Michigan & Ohio St, lost to MSU.
  • Iowa - beat Penn St & Illinois, lost to Wisco.
  • Michigan State - beat Indiana & Ohio St, lost to Wisconsin and Illinois.
  • Ohio State - beat Penn St & Purdue, lost to MSU and Indiana.
  • Northwestern - beat Minnesota & Purdue, lost to Penn St & Wisconsin. (yes, I consider the 'Cats wholly part of the 'middle-of-the-Big-10-pack.' 2-2 in conference, baby).

The Big 10 is going to end the regular season with 5-6 teams in the top 25 - one in the top 10 [Wisco, likely, b/c of their start and their favorable schedule - they get Michigan (on the road), Indiana and Illinois (both at home) only once], and 4 in the 15 - 25 range because they're going to be killing each other all year. For tourney purposes, that means one #3 seed, five or six #6-#8 seeds, and maybe a low #11 or so.

But what will they do in the tourney? Given the coaching in this league, and the depth of talent at all these schools, I think you should favor them heavily in March. But lets wait a bit, and see how the rest of this season plays out....

On to tonight's pick:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers
I see my buddy Union Jack threw down some cash on the Hoosiers. Not a bad move, generally. I generally liked how they started against the Sparts, even without DJ White, and as JoeJackson and I discussed, if that game is in Indiana, then it could go either way. And I like that they are coming home for this matchup against the Illini. But I do have one particular issue with this game: Mike Davis scares the hell out of me. So I don't think I'm going to ride the Hoosier train with you, Union. Instead, my thoughts are this: There are going to be some points scored in this game - heavy points. The Illini are substantially worse defensively on the road than at home (granted, they've only played 2 actual road games all year). I expect this to be a running game (quite different from the defensive slow-down ugly-fest that was the weekend MSU-OSU matchup - recapped here and here). So, my pick is:
Illini at Indiana Over 135

--------------------------------------------
As I mentioned a while back, the Sedge Court Journal crew has invited me to participate in their basketball handicapping contest. I threw down my first post for that contest here.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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More College Basketball...

Great showing last night by Connecticut. Boy, did they look good. 5 players in double-digits. Marcus Williams -- a game high 11 dimes. He is back. UConn will be around in late March.

Tonights NCAAB pick,

--Hoosiers -2.5 over the Fighting Illini--

In conversations with a few diehard Illinois fans, no one has expressed confidence in the Fighting Illini. I have also gleaned the following...

Offensively, Illinois is 2 dimensional (Dee and Augustine). The Illini will get better as the season progresses with the maturity of Jamar Smith and Shaun Pruit, but at this point in the season DB and JA have combined to score nearly 60% of Illinois's points through 3 Big Ten games. Mike Davis will focus on Dee in particular, forcing the young Illini to step up and make plays.

Defensively, Illinois plays primarily man-to-man. IU will spread the floor with sharpshooters Vaden and Strickland, and with Killingsworth inside, the Hoosiers will create matcup problems for the Illini.

I know Indiana is coming off a poor showing against the Spartys, as Doing Lines himself properly prognosticated, but the Hoosiers match up much better against the Illini. IU wins this one by 10.

Jan Record
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-0-0

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Monday, January 16, 2006

Career Week-end and Other Considerations

On the heals of a money-line parlay that turned its nose at taking the charity for the men of steel, sparty v. bucknuts and 'Cuse vs. Cincy, I have some lingering considerations....

Does Nick Harper deposit the bus' spare tire in the end-zone if he doesn't have a hole in his knee? Eugene Robinson makes that play.

Does Vanderchoke push through the game-tying field goal if he's not sporting his wannabe press-on earring?

Does Jose Cortez make that kick?

Do the Colts need Tee Martin to get to the next level?

Does Champ Bailey have the biggest melon in the history of cornerbacks? Could he have stopped Steve Smith on Sunday?

Will Super Bowl XL quarterback match-up feature a tandem of QBs with the least and most hair in the history of NFL quarterbacks? Wolfman Plummer v. Hasselnohair?

Have there been more fumbles over pylon than any other year in the history of the League

Is Rex Grossman googling Cade McNown today?

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50%

In baseball, batting 0.500 for a weekend series is an accomplishment.

In basketball, 50% from the field is a good days work.

In gambling, 50% for the weekend is a disappointment.

Chi/Car and NE/Den both played out more-or-less how I'd anticipated. As for the Skins/Hawks game, anyone else pissed off at John Hall for missing the 36 yd chip shot for the cover? And the Colts / Steelers game...completely missed the boat on that one. DL made some cash there, I believe.

To pass the time, a pick for tonight...

The Connecticut Huskies -1.5 over The Syracuse Orangemen (I mean Orange)

G-Mac cools off and the Huskies roll...

January Record
2-2-0

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Sunday, January 15, 2006

Bears v. Panthers - the one thing everyone is forgetting about

OK, ok, I know the Panthers have been playing well. And I know they demolished a bad Giants team (which was great for everyone outside NYC, by the way). And I know they'll be ready for this game against the Chicago Bears. So many of the prognosticators are saying 'throw the first game out' and picking them to take down the men of Chi-town. But everyone is forgetting an important thing:

The Bears were using their backup rookie QB in the first game. Not their starting QB. Backup, rookie. People are terribly underestimating this. The Bears have shown the ability (in the game.5 that rex has played) to extend the field, to run passing plays on first down, and to generally get the ball in the air. These are all things they did not trust K-Orton to do. In today's NFL, with the secondaries as good as they are, you cannot put the game in the hands of a Kyle Orton. Rex Grossman, however, is a huge step up.

Another couple of points:
  • In the last game, Carolina was riding a 6 game winning streak. You cannot say they were playing badly.
  • The Carolina road wins this year are (with final records): Arizona (5-11), Detroit (5-11), Tampa Bay (11-5), Buffalo (5-11), New Orleans (3-13), and a bad end-of-year Atlanta team (8-8). That's a .385 winning percentage of opponents.
  • Thomas Jones will rush for over 90 yards, barring him getting Kimo'd or Alexander'd.
Take the Bears, and lay the points (was 3, but shrinking fast)....

DL

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NFL Sunday

So after hitting an early 2-banger (Hawks giving the puentas with the under), I was feeling good about my Saturday. But then the Patsies did not play like they should have (Ben Watson's effort notwithstanding), and I ended up with a down day. That's what happens when they play the mans game on the true sabbath..

But, today's games are going to be the real games. This is NFL Sunday, the way it was meant to be played...

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Colts at Steelers
  • Colts obviously demolished them in the first game.
  • Steelers are playing better, and Rothlisberger is healthier
  • Colts, the ultimate preparing team, will be more prepared for this game than anything they've played in.
I'm teasing the Steelers at +10, pushing it to maybe +17. I'm not sure, however, if they can actually win this game. Does anyone think they actually can?

I also may put the Undies on for this one, b/c I think the defenses will be very ready (esp the Pittsburgh D, after getting burnt early in game 1).

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WagerKing takes Indy, and MoneyLiners likes the Pitt moneyline, naturally.
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More on second game in a bit....

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Saturday, January 14, 2006

Redskins Seahawks thoughts

I don't have a strong preference on which way this game will go. But this is what I'm thinking about it:

  • C-Portis is injuried. Pretty jacked up, apparently. If you saw that TD run he threw in against the Bucs, he took the hit right on one of his injured shoulders, and supposedly got a stinger (hence the LaDell Betts time late game).
  • 9.5 points (10 at some books) is a lot of points.
  • It's raining in Sea-town, all day. Who has the better running game? Seattle, clearly.
  • The Redskins have basically played 5 elimination games in a row. Will this drag on them?
  • If the Redskins' offense performs like it did last week, they won't cover.
  • I cannot see the Redskins winning this game. At all. Does this mean we go with the Sports Guy's adage (Manifesto Rule #10 - Only pick an underdog or a road team if you're convinced it has the chance to win the game outright)?
  • 9.5 is really a lot of points.
  • Mike Holmgren or Joe Gibbs? Gibbs, of course, is 16-5 all time in the playoffs, but he is getting up to Joe-Pa (Joe-Ga?) status, delegating nearly all of his work (not including Joe Gibbs Racing duties). Holmgren has a less-than-impressive playoff record (9-8, 0-3 without Favre), and has been known to outcoach himself.
  • This line opened at 9 and has moved up. According to wagerline, at all points, more bettors were taking the skins. So why was the line moving up?
Not sure what the conclusion is. Tease this puppy, so it's Hawks giving 3 or so? Or do the Skins actually have a chance in this game, and should I play with that side of the line?

Hmmmmm....

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Also, Sedge has more picks up here, Onine Sports Bettor here, and Moneyliners here.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Friday, January 13, 2006

Testing, testing...

Uh, hello. Union Jack, here. Uh, um...does this thing work?

[akward silence]

Well first, I want to thank man above because without him, I wouldn't have NFL playoffs to wager on.

Second, I would like to extend my gratitude to Doing Lines. Thanks for the generous, albeit careless, invitation to post/gamble amongst fine brethren such as yourselves.

Now, as we all know, online gambling is not a sometime thing; it's an all time thing. You don't win once in awhile, you don't do things right once in awhile...ALL RIGHT, enough with the introductory/motivation speech...ON TO MY PICKS.

--Carolina +2.5 over the Bears--
Yes, Chicagoans, you read it right. The Bears will not cover. Heck, they may very well lose this game.

1) Health - A healthy Jake Delhomme, a healthy DeShaun Foster. Carolina will rush for more than 55 yards this go-around.

2) Steve Smith - 14 catches, 169 yards AND NO TOUCHDOWNS. That's a fluke, my friends. I don't buy the whole bend-but-don't-break philosophy (excuse?).

3) T-Rex Grossman - Quick trivia, who has more career starts, Rex or Kyle Orton?

4) Coaching - John Fox vs Lovie Smith.

5) The Bears played a patsy schedule with 6 games against GB, MN, and DT (or is it DL?).

Gosh, I'm running out of steam here. I swear it's not my first time...

--Denver -3.0 over the Patriots--
Yes, all you Bridget Moynahan fans, the Patriots will go down. As a side note, as the Patriots dynasty ends, does Brady spiral into depression and end up with Tara Reid at his side? Hey, at least he'll now have something in commom with Kyle Boller.

In any case, not much to this game. Everyone loves the Patriots (and the Bears, for that matter). I'm going against the grain.

1) Denver is at home. Where they are 8-0 (5-2-1 ATS). With a long week to prepare. Also, over the past 5 years, Denver is 3-1 ATS vs Patriots.

2) Big match up here? Denver's rushing attack (2nd in the NFL at 158.7 ypg) vs NE rushing defense (98.8 ypg). I think Denver wins this matchup.

I'm exhausted. DL, I don't know how you do this on a regular basis.

For the sake of brevity, I give you:

--Washington +9.5 over Seattle--
Redskins 5-0-1 ATS in their last 5. Seattle is the trendy pick. Seattle wins by 3.

--Colts -9.5 over Pittsburgh--
I see a repeat of the game earlier this year. Peyton strikes early, throws Pit out of their game plan (ie you can't run the ball 100 times if you are down 2 touches. Ok, you can, but you will lose, by 2 touches). And that's exactly what will happen.

Union Jack, ten-four, over and out.

0-0-0. [Nothing like a fresh start]

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More NFL Playoff Thoughts - Pats v. Broncos

This game is highly intriguing to me. I think there are 2 plays on the line:

New England Moneyline
This is sitting at +140 right now, and I honestly think that these guys are going to take down the Broncs in this game. I don't know why Shanahan and the 'stached-Snake will be able to stand in their way. But, if you are concerned about this, then....

New England +3 or Teaser (to +9/+10)
I have a very strong feeling that the Pats will win, but I know that they will not lose by more than a score. I think you throw these in a teaser. Or, like you can do on bet365.com, you just put this line somewhere in the middle, at a +7 (add the hook, if you want it). But I feel very good about this one.

Sorry OSB, we disagree....

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NFL Appetizer

For those of you holding back the tears that will flow after the last football Saturday of the season, here's a Friday PM distraction.

Denver +6.5 at Minny. Nuggles have been on a nice roll, while Minny has stumbled lately and only covered because Captain Kirk did not take the complimentary down by six last second deuce.

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The Best Weekend in the NFL (Underoos back on)


It's gotta be the best NFL weekend, right? Not the first weekend of the playoffs, because 4 of the best teams don't play. Perhaps opening weekend, because there's so much hope for every team (in most recent years). But this weekend, you get 4 very intriguing matchups with the best teams. So that's my stand. Best weekend in the NFL.

Anyways, I know the Doing Lines blog posse has their own particular thoughts on these games, and I'd be interested to hear them. I have one particular pick this weekend that I like:

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Under 44
Yes, you read that right. I'm putting my Underoos back on for this game. The Broncos were one of the best scoring defenses in the league, allowing 16.1 points per game (3rd in the League), and only 12.5 at home (one thing to watch out for, though, is that they are middle-of-the pack in their yards allowed per game - 2nd in rush yards allowed at 85, but 29th in passing yards allowed). The Patsies defense was hampered by injuries all year, but they are allowing only 10.3 over their last 6 (including the meaningless 28 they gave up to Miami in the Flutie-drop-kick-game).

Put 'em on with me.....

What are your thoughts on this line, other lines, other games?

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Check out some of the Sedge Court Journal Picks.
The Online Sports Bettor really likes Denver laying the points.
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My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Thursday, January 12, 2006

New Features at Doing Lines

Yo - Check out the 2 new features we've posted here, in the right sidebar:

1) Categories - you can click on the categories listed and it will search for any posts on this blog that are related to that topic. I'm still trying to refine the college section to get a breakout of NCAA hoops vs. football, but I've got about 8 months before I really have to worry about that.

2) Contributor Posts - click on each contributor, and you can review all their posts. I'm considering looking back at everyone's picks and getting a consolidated record for each of us, but I think that'll just be embarassing for me....

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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The Association pick - TNT Thursday

Finally had a decent dollar day yesterday (though Duke - Maryland didn't help, and the Knicks win kind of brought me down, emotionally). Maybe I'll write a James Frey -like memoir (or is it a 'semi-fictional text'?) of my addictions and recovery. Except mine would be true, and recovery may not be an option. Anyways, lets build on the momentum, Association style

Another great Thursday with a limited slate of games. Thank you Teddy Turner (and Ernie, Kenny, and Charles). A couple of decent games are on TNT, with the Pistons visiting the Spurs in the early match, and Cavs at Lakers in the nightcap (while for some reason, the fun offensive shootout of the Warriors at the Suns is scheduled on this night as well, with no TV in sight east of Flagstaff). Right now, I really only like one of these lines:

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Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs, Over 177
I was thinking about the line in this game (Spurs -4), and my initial instinct said that the Pistons could easily win this game. But instinct #2 said this could also be an easy 8 point win for the Spurs, if the Flip doesn't have his boys ready to play. So instincts didn't help.

But looking at what these teams have done this year is impressive, from a scoring front. I think this line is being artificially dragged down by their Christmas meeting earlier this season, when the Pistons beat the Spurs in Detroit. However, Manu wasn't in that game, and you know he only adds points (at both ends of the floor). Take off the Undies, we're going Over....

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Wednesday, January 11, 2006

ACC style

Well, just because everyone is doing it...

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Maryland +13 at Duke
In the story of conflicting meaningless storylines, Duke is going for their 100th win vs. MD, and apparently the Terps are shooting for the first 4-game winning streak over the Dookies since the early seventies, or something.

Anyways, believe in the Terps. Not sure why. I don't think Gary W is a good coach. Baby Strawberry is highly overrated, right? But, as we all know, JJ is reddick-ulous. Anyways, 13 is a lot to give..... Take the Terps..

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More Big 10 Juice

After another rough day yesterday (but improving over recent days, especially due to the nice Nets cover last night which included a much-needed Scotty Padgett 3-bomb with not much time left), I'm going to try my hand again at Big 10 hoops:

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Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan St Spartans -4
Now, this game was -5 earlier in the day, and it has crept to -4. IU is coming off 2 nice home wins, against Michigan and the Bucknuts. The Spartans, as has been well-enough documented, are having some slight issues, going 0-2 in Big 10 play with losses at both Wisconsin and the Illini. So, it's the first in-conference home game for Sparty, and the first in-conference road game for the Hooze. IU is also dealing with the loss of DJ White, the all-important inside player for them. I expect that Izzo will also have Paul Davis ready to go against the depleted Hoosier front line (especially after the terrible offensive outing he had up in Badger-land). Izzo will not go 0-3 in this conference.

What do you think about the Over / Under in this game, of 146.5? I am interested to know your thoughts. IU plays a high-paced game (and the spartans are middle of the pack), which means lots of scoring. But this is the Big 10, baby! Look at the MSU opener in Champaign - The Illinois Orange-folk of high-scoring fame only managed 60 (and Sparty only dropped 50).

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No NFL preview yet (though I can't wait for the other posters to throw their thoughts up here), but in anticipation of watching Sean Taylor on the field again, check out this slow-mo link of his vicious attack which got him tossed last week (click on the "Taylor spits on Pittman" link).

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Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Unbelievable (for me) ending to the Battle of the Furry Mammals

My pick was the Wisconsin Badgers giving the single in the land of the Gopher-of-many-lakes, and I felt solid about it. Felt a little uneasy when I couldn't get online until late in the day, when it had grown to a triple, but thanks to the IT help of Windy City Parlay, I was still able to get it in at 3.

I was sitting pretty early in this battle of the Furry Mammals, with the Badgas up by 19 points over the Gophers deep into the first half. But the golden rodents came back and took a 2nd half lead with just over 60 seconds on the clock. But my guy Alando dropped a dunk on the Minnesota crew, and Wisco had the lead for good. After a couple misses and the Madison-based youngsters hitting their free throws, I had a 5 pt lead, and felt fine about the 3 points I was giving. But what happened? Rico Tucker comes down, with the meaningless trifecta with no time remaining. Rico wha-? Rico who-? Rico T, apparently, the same guy who had hit 1-12 coming into the game.

In summary, I lost my $ bet. I guess on the bright side, I won my bet posted here, which is a big improvement over what I've been playing with recently....

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Another NBA taste for tonight

As the Badgers try to blow the game (up 25-6 with 3:15 left in the first half, it's an ever-shrinking 8pt lead at half), I'm liking the New Jersey Nets tonight. They are getting 8 big points in San Antone, and I know Richie Jeff may be out, but its sounding like he's going to suit up. The Nets have been on fire....

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NBA Nibble

Quite simply, the Knicks (fresh off their first 3 game win streak of the season...30% of their win total on the year) are a gift at +9 tonight against LeBron and co. Take the Knicks, plus the points, plus Larry Brown's colostomy bag.

Later,

WCP

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College Hoops Pick o' the day

After a stellar 1-15-1 week of handicapping (the push was the Natl Champ game. Wait, what?), I'm back on the college basketball wagon.

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Wisconsin -1 at Minnesota

Today, I really like something about that Big 10 matchup of Wisconsin at Minnesota. First of all, I think that the Badgers will win this game. I know that their 2 losses are both on the road (against Pitt and Wake), and all their good wins are at home. But Alando Tucker will come back and have a better game than he had last game (note 5-17 from the floor and 6-17 from the line). Also, Minnesota really is an up tempo team that generally can't handle the slooow-down of Wisconsin (like the slooow down of Northwestern). Also, Minnesota has pretty poor 3-pt FG defense, and I expect 'sconny to be able to exploit it.

The O/U of 134 is also quite appealing. I think that they will go through it, but I think I'll stay away. Haven't had a great run of Over/Unders recently...

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On a side note, I will be joining a Basketball Picks contest over at the Sedge Court Journal, beginnning next week. I'm aiming for a perfect season (like New Mexico State). Thanks to those guys for including me in it.....

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Sunday, January 08, 2006

Screw this - I'm going under....

....in the Pit Cincy game. Under 46.5. I'll throw down a make-up bet for all my other losses (here and here).....

On another note, WVA beat down 'Nova on their turf. Gotta love Pittsnogle....

Check the Pittsnogle blog here - not bad, but they really need more pics. Like this one.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

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Bloody Saturday

Ouch. Another terrible day yesterday for yours truly, though it appears that ShoelessJoe had a nice little day for hisself. Today, how can I recover?

Over 44.5 Panthers at Giants
Despite my major miscalculations on overs yesterday, I'm, going to keep hitting them. I don't know who to like in this game, but I do like there to be some mejor points scored. Rack em up, boys....

Steelers at Bungles +3
So, you think the Steelers are on a roll? That's fine, but I think taking the points for a home team is what you need to do. Take the Cinci-nasties.

What do you think? What about the over in the second game too (I'm getting dangerous, yet again).....


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Saturday, January 07, 2006

Redemption Saturday

Dee Brown locked down the bank on me on Thursday, but I'm breaking back in today with the Hawkeyes getting a bucket at home against the Illini.

So far, so good.

And, can anybody stop the Northwestern Wildcats? The Cats are purring already up 12 at the break with the 7.5 points of cushion waiting for them.

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Wild Card Saturday / aka: Take off your Undies, were going OVER!

Finally, fun NFL things to think about outside of Vince Young's draft position, unusual coaching swaps (baldy-mustached-Childress from Randy Moss' former haunts to TO's former haunts, Big Herm from a bad east coast team to a not-so-bad midwest team), the Bears' domination of the postseason awards (so far; something tells me Kyle aint getting no MVP), and the viability of Vick-el-Marcus as an ankle-stomper in the pros. We've got PLAYOFFS.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wow, what an intriguing set here. The Chrissy-Simms-led Bucs are hosting the Redskins, led by coach Janky Spanky (you need to see the Portis clip here). Both with decent defenses, and offenses that really need the run to be on for them to get going. I believe that the 'Skins are feeling pretty disrespected, as they are one of the hotter NFC teams right now, at being set as the dog here.

I'm taking Redskins +1. But the play I like more on this game is the Over (36.5). These teams have been scoring some points in recent weeks, with the Skins averaging 33 points over their last 3 games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Is anyone else fed up with the the jock-riding of the Pay-Tree-Ots? The Jags are getting no love because of their easy schedule, but they did take down Cincy, Pittsburgh, and Seattle (granted, all were Week 6 or earlier). Supposedly, the Patsies are preparing for a double-headed QB (with both Gerrard and Big Byron available), which hopefully should confuse them. Not to mention, B-leftwich is probably the most capable play-while-injured QB outside of Mr. McNair, as he has been doing this stuff since college.

I think because it's greater than a Touch, you have to take the points. Jaguars, +7.5.

But, just like the early game, you have to look at the totals. 37 points is a tad low, and I can see these teams putting up an offensive show that you aren't prepared for. Of course, the playoffs are always more defensive, and yes, Billy Belichek is a defensive genius, but I believe that the Jags and Pats will both be able to score on the capabilities of their QBs. Take Over 37.

Take off your Undies, we're going OVER....

So, what does one do? I think, because the line is above a TD, you have to take the Jaggies.

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Friday, January 06, 2006

Friday Night Lights - THE Association

I know, JoeJacksonHasShoes has already started up with the playoff banter, but I'm going to ignore it for a day. Why? It's back to the NBA, baby.

Washington Wiz at New York Knickerbockers UNDER 211.5
The Knicks have been on an unbelievable points tear, with their last 11 games all hitting the over. The Wiz have given up season highs in their last 2 games (123 to Houston, 128 to MIA). But I cannot believe that these 2 teams are going to keep it up. They met on November 4, and the final score was 86-75. Under it.

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee -5.5
The Bulls are on a memorable streak, losing all of their last 8 games (both straight up and ATS). The Bucks have not been playing particularly well either, but Tyson Chandler is out with a bum ankle. This midwestern battle will be won, decisively, by the sons of Mil-Aah-Waah-Keee.


Give me thoughts.......

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NFL Playoffs

I need help sorting this out.

The Pats are giving the touch and the hook against JAX. Conventional wisdom from every prognosticator is to take the Jags and the donation. Why? The Jags are inconsistent against the spread, squeezing out a straight-up win against the Niners and then a routing win their season finale. They have a quarterback who was mediocre to begin with coming back after a 5-week layoff to play on the road, in cold weather, against the best playoff team in the modern era. Advise.

Again, despite the line being tilted in the BUCS favor, everybody is in Joe Gibb's racecar. Certainly, they've ran off five straight and have covered the number in their last three, but, they are on the road, on a shortweek in the playoffs. Same love affair exists with Carolina. So which of these two is a one-night stand and which is true love?

Lastly, I do like the Steelers at the Bengals. But, again, posters unanimously like the bengals to be tamed at home. The Bengals have been the bungles at home, going a mediocre 5-3 (with the notable loss to Bills); however, they were shredded last week at a place where no team has won in December since the 1st Bush was in the White House (long before Gina Davis). The Bungles did beat the Steelers straight-up in steeltown.

Go Bears.

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hanging up the six-shooters

happy new year to all.

last nite i mustered up the courage to limp back from a demoralizing og bowl season (my stone cold, lead-pipe locks included South Carolina and Michigan less their respective numbers along with the domers getting four and half lucky charms from the bucknuts). with that said, i saw more than green GWB saw in the oil fields of iraq with michigan state getting 7 points at Chief Illiniwek's teepee.

despite a ridiculously ugly performance by the heartless spartans, they were still down by only 5 with 32 seconds to play. so, the seasoned og'er is running possible scenarios on order of probability. 1. illinois gets a 2 point bucked to extend to seven, msu comes down and gets a quick two. i win my bet. 2. msu gets a stop, comes down gets a quick two/three, or misses and then fouls, illinois hits one of two charity shots. i win my bet. In all scenarios, never did I dream up of Richard McBride hitting a 3-ball from Row RR, Seat 6 with the shot clock expiring to extend the lead to 8, requiring a desperation heave by the spartans (which would be a miss) then a foul to extend the lead to 10.

its fine to get beat by Dee Brown gong off for 34. but to lose the 7 to Richard McBride? Who is he? Sounds like a cheeseball 80s dude vocalist, a la Don Henley, Peter Townshed. As a matter of fact, I think McBride opened up for the lame-ass Richard Marx concert I took Julie McCabe to in the 11th grade hoping to get laid.

With that said, I am now convinced that 1. MSU hoops team has less heart than its football counterpart (is that possible?)2. IL is the worst 15-0 team in the history of sport. 3. I love Iowa on Saturday against IL whatever the number may be.

Thank you.

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Thursday, January 05, 2006

UCLA v. Arizona - unusual line

OK, I know Ceddy Bozeman is out, and that Jordan Farmar is game-time decision, but the Bruins are getting 11.5 points, in Arizona? I mean, this is highly unusual.....

So, I headed over to wagerline.com, and check it out. This means that the heavy cash has been on the Bruins, but still the line has moved higher. I just don't know what to do with this.

So I bet it.

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And just like that, College Basketball Season begins

OK, so maybe it really started 2 months ago. But after a game as dazzling as that one last night, I know am fully able to move on to the other college sport. Yes, despite my loss of the Trojans giving the points, I was still quite satisfied with the game (not to mention the win of the over, as well as my Baz-inspired pick of Bobcats getting 7 against the Celts). Solid recap of Keith Jackson's best quotes from the game here.

Anyways, picks for tonight (from someone who knows very little about this 'college basketball' you speak of):

Michigan St at Illinois OVER 138
It seems to me that teams that are on a roll against weaker competition generally are prepared with good shooting, passing, and dribbling skills (the triple-threat, you might say). Also, early in the season, everyone knows how to play offense (since all these stars have been doing that since they first were able to dunk in the 3rd grade), but team defense generally doesn't come together until the unit has really played together. Therefore, I'm going to try out a streak of betting the overs, in this early season. Including this game.

Villanova at Louisville +2.5
This is Louisville's first ever Big East conference game, which is nice. Yay for Ricky Pitino, who is back in the conference where he started a while back. But really, this conference is good. They could conceivably get 10 teams into the tourney, which will ease the pain of the NCAA revoking their automatic BCS bid (we can dream, right?).

Anyways, while I think 'Nova is good, they have to be able to shoot from outside in order win. They have good guards, but the 'ville has some good inside play (Juan Palacios is a big boy, as 'they' say), and I give them the edge with the home-court advantage.

What do you think?

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WagerKing Picks

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Wednesday, January 04, 2006

National Championship Game Pick

Ah, so it's that time of year again, the time of year when USC gets on their Big-12-a$$-kicking, behemoth of a hoss named Charger and takes down the annual challenger, whomever it may be. Or is it the time of year when some under-dogging-it team from a sub-par conference actually rides their star to a miracle upset? Here, as I see it, are the results and chance of happening:

USC wins by a lot (covering) - 40%
USC wins a closer game - 25%
Texas wins a closer game - 25%
Texas wins by a lot - 10%

I have to go with USC, laying the points. But, in general, I don't like this game and this line. I really feel like almost anything can happen, and a saner version of me would stay away from it.

I do like the over of 69.5 though. That is something that I think will likely be broken, and you know that Petey Carroll will not give up any opportunity to run up the score.

My #1 prediction of this game will that it will be similar to the FSU v. VaTech game from 1999 (played on 1/4/00). As you may recall, FSU had Chris Weinke (aged 36 at the time, I believe) and Peter Warrick (friend of the Dillard's store), and very good defense. Va Tech had a very exciting athletic quarterback, and in that game, Ronny Mexico came out as potentially the most exciting college player of all time. I think that Vince Young will be unveiled to the world as an unbelievable athletic talent, and this game will show him to be


Incidentially, isn't it great that Laverneus Coles, who got thrown off that 1999 FSU team for the Dillard's incident while Peter Warrick got to stay on because Bobby Bowden can do whatever he wants in the NCAA, turned out to be a much better pro than Warrick?

Does anyone else remember this from last year? I highly enjoyed it at the time, and it brings back good memories. Also see this recap of some of the terrible Nat'l Champ half-time performances in recent years. FYI, I am regressing to this kind of stuff because I am sick of reading every single sports 'journalist' flip-flop at least 3 annoying (and formulaic) times on the "Trojans-have-never-faced-a-defense-like-UT's"/"USC-is-too-loaded"/"Reggie has been meeting with agents and is distracted" bandwagon. And yes, I just linked to a Skip Bayless column.

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