Sunday, January 22, 2006

NFL - AFC Championship Game

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

What will happen in this mighty match of two running offenses against two run-stopping defenses? This has gotten a lot of hype, but as you'll see here, while the Broncos and Steelers are ranked 2nd and 3rd in rushing yards per game, the Broncos actually allow 4.0 yards per rush which is 15th in the league. Pittsburgh is first at 3.4 YPR. So why do teams rush fewer number of times against the Broncos? Maybe because they have the 29th rated passing defense (in yards per game) at 227.7, which means that overall, the Broncos have the 15th rated defense in yards per game. The Steelers are fourth.

So, what is the number one prediction for this game? The line, as of right now, is Steelers +3 with at least +100 on the back end. I think that you need to take the Steelers money line. According to Moneyliners, during these playoffs, the straight up winners are 8-0 ATS. Or another way to put it - if you bet on the underdog and you won your bet, they won the game. Which means that if you're considering any underdog, you might as well throw it down on the Moneyline. As Moneyliner is doing, for both games. I think I'll ride with him on this one too.

But, with greater weight, I will throw down on the Over 41.0 in this game. I believe that these teams will bust through this, especially with the Steelers able to throw the ball (just not towards Champ).


Check other NFL free picks, besides Moneyliners, at our buddies Online Sports Bettor, JT Sneaks, and a couple by the Sedge Court Journal crew.

My favorite online gambling sites are Bet365 and Pinnacle Sports:

Bet It Live With bet365!


Blogger Bruno said...

If you put equal amounts down on the moneyline on both dogs you assured yourself of a plus day when the Steelers won.

7:19 PM CST  
Blogger Joe Casciato "shadow" said...

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3:39 PM CST  
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