Doing Lines - The Sports Gambling Blog

Gambling On the Pro Bowl

2006-02-12T11:46:00.000-06:00

Hello all. For today's Sunday pick, I take the following Pro Bowl bet:

NFC at AFC OVER 69
YEah, I had the over a couple years ago, when it the total was at 50, and the final score was 55-52 in OT. I like this line - I think they'll bust all through it.

I also have a big college hoops pick over at the Sedge Court Journal contest - check it out here.

-DL

Duke - North Carolina matchup and pick

2006-02-07T16:17:00.000-06:00

I'm not even sure which way I want to go on this one. Currently, the Dookies are favored by 5 points over UNC.

Anyways, I think the pick of the day (outside of my pick over at Sedge Court Journal), is this:
Duke at North Carolina Over 155
These teams have been scoring a lot recently. So I think this is the way to go, but I could be wrong.

I guess that my ideal result is a Duke-sideline explosion, with Dick Vitale in the middle of it.

Speaking of which, did you see this picture? Duke & Arod together. Thank you Deadspin.

Sports Gambling Site Review and Recommendation - Pinnacle Sports Book

2006-02-02T10:12:00.000-06:00

If you are new to sports gambling, and are perhaps interested in putting a bet or two down on the Super Bowl, I think you should read this post. I've now got an official partnership with the good ladies and gents over at Pinnacle Sports. In this post I talk a little about all the reasons why Pinnacle has got to be the best sports book out there (it's now my most-preferred sports book), and why I agreed to partner with them.

Why Pinnacle? Pinnacle Sports is generally known as the place for real gamblers to go play. The reason is actually pretty simple – Pinnacle consistently offers the best house edge for any players. So what does that really mean? Most sports books (online, in Vegas, or from your local bookie) offer their lines at -110. What this means is that, lets say for the upcoming Super Bowl, you bet the Pittsburgh Steelers -4 -110. That means that you think the Steelers will win by at least 4 points, and if you're right, you will win your bet at a -110 pace. Which means that you need to bet $110 to win $100 (or bet $1.10 to win $1.00). This is a universal spread, and is generally referred to as the "house edge" or the "vig."

Pinnacle Sports Book, however, currently has this line as Steelers -4 -107. Which means that you still are giving the same number of points (4), but now, you only have to bet $107 to win $100 (or $1.07 to win $1.00). This is closer to real odds, though you are still giving a little house edge. On other games, Pinnacle may have the odds as low as -103. I know, I know, you plan on winning all your bets, so it doesn't matter. Well, unless you are the next coming of Nostradamus, trust me, you're going to want to go with Pinnacle. Over time, this difference can add up significantly.

A great source to check this out is www.sportsbookreview.com which is universally acknowledged as the number one sports book review and ratings site. They are very stringent in their requirements, so it seems (though who knows how much they actually make directly from each of the books they praise). Check out their recommended list HERE.

Pinnacle also offers some other random bonuses, including a 10% signup bonus, and a 0.3% Cash Back program for Casino games (for all of you who play online blackjack). So, I highly recommend that you sign up for Pinnacle if you are new to the sports betting world. Your cash will last much longer. Just click HERE to sign up.

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Note - I have used bet365 for a long time, and I will continue to do so (along with Pinnacle), because it has some features which are pretty fun (like any-way-adjustable lines, and parlay bonuses). I will detail what these are, and how they benefit a gambler, in a later post (If you are interested, you can check out bet365 HERE). But for now, and if you're a basic bettor and want to get into the game with paying a reduced house edge on standard bets (with lines, over/unders, and moneylines), then Pinnacle is where I recommend you start.
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FYI, this was not a writeup generated by the Pinnacle Sports marketing team or anything - I wrote it myself. I really believe that Pinnacle is the best sports book to go to if you're going to start online gambling.

-DL

Gay, Gay....Gay, Gay...

2006-02-01T21:18:00.000-06:00

I'm waiting for JJ to bring my six banger home.

There's no better moment in sports gambling when you're rooting home the final leg of your six-banger. I'll even get behind Gay-Gay for that (pardon the pun).

Tonight, Tonight

2006-02-01T15:11:00.000-06:00

Piston -8.5 v. T-pups
Angry Pistons team comes home to feast on T-pups. Ricky Davis? Kevin McHales is prepared for an episode of "This could've been your life".....as he watches Chauncy dominate.

Suns -4.5 v. Celtics
Suns will be interested in this affair as they can head home with a winning road trip by closing out the C-minuses. Celtics are carrying Wally Weight and can't score enough points to keep up with the Nashinator and Boris Diaw.

Notre Dame +8 at the WV
The Irish have to have some good luck sooner or later, and I'm guessing its tonite. WV doesn't have the athletes that usually give the Domers trouble, so they can hang tough or potentially win this game.

Kentucky -5 at Mississippi State
The toughest part of writing about this pick is spelling Missis....What does concern me, though, is UK lack of spread closing ability. At Auburn, they let a 15 pt lead with 2 minutes remaining dwindle to 9, although still managed to cover. At home against Arkansas, they had leads of 8 with 1:35 and 46 seconds left and managed to win by only 2 and not carry my water. I expect their cushion to be big enough to avoid a slip fatal to the spread.

Marquette -4.5 v. St. Johns
Of course the Johnnies have had some notable wins (Pitt Louisville) but they pushed on road against UCONN and Marquette is the only show in Milwaukee. I like the Warriors, oops, the Golden Eagles

Duke -5 v. BC
This game gives me concern b/c Sheldon is a paper tiger inside and BC has good size at the 3-5 spots, but the Dukies love to win these games big. (For example, they've covered their last 4 ACC road games-- Georgetown was non-conference).

Is Kammron Taylor

2006-02-01T10:55:00.000-06:00

the offspring of Chris Rock?
What I want to see during half-time of the Minny at Wisco match-up is the backwoods battle both teams' lumberjack big men. We'll use a "World's Strongest Man" type set-up.

Wisconsin:
Brian Butch
Greg Steisma
Jason Chappell

Minnesota:
Dan Coleman
Spencer Tollackson
Jonathon Williams

We'd see shit like keg toss, car lift, etc.

Back to Basics

2006-02-01T10:46:00.000-06:00

Remember when you were a kid? You grabbed the rock, went out to the backyard and started hoisting long-range jumpers? Well, if you played organized hoop, unless you were Jimmy Chitwood, Coach Norman Dale would make you back to the charity stripe and work on your fundamentals. If you're an NBA gambler and your crystal ball is a bit cloudly, I suggest that you go back to those unequivocable rules of NBA gambling that are as certain as certain as a White Sox repeat:

1. The Pistons at home ATS. If you get early money, they are a perfect 21-0 at home ATS. And look, they're at home tonite against the Ricky Davis (Is he Spre's stunt double?)-led T-Pupps after a loss.

2. The Atlanta Hawks are an equally "perfect" 0-21 on the road ATS. Even horrible home teams like the Bulls have found a way to cover large number against this team. Where have you gone Boris Diaw, Atlanta turns its lonely eyes to you....
Sweet Jesus, this disastrous road team is now a favorite on the road against Charlotte. Somewhere, Bobcat Baz is cashing out his 401k

The 30pt NBA Rule

2006-02-01T10:38:00.000-06:00

Here's what I've learned in the last week of NBA watching.

In an NBA game when a favorite has a 30 pt 3rd quarter point differential, you would much rather have your greenbacks on the team getting 9+ points than the team leaving them on the floor.

The defense presents the following two examples:

1. Lakers at Pistons. Pistons up by 31 early in the 3rd quarter and end up with only a 9 pt win, leaving folks like myself who got late money at -9.5 on the losing end. Now, those non-believers probably invoke the Kobe Bryant excpetion. For you, I offer:

2. Bulls at Mavs: Bulls down 69-39 in the 3rd quarter then charge back to easily win my wager.

The moral of this story, is if you're team is down in the 3rd quarter, you want them to be done big (assuming you don't bet the Knicks or an equivalent team that loves to quit).
I raise this issue to combat an alarming trend of "hail mary" bets that may not be needed. As you know, the "Hail Mary" bet is the, "oh shit, my team is down 30 with no chance of winning with number, I look to the West and gamble on a St. Mary's, Portland or Hawaii team that I've never seen." Union Jack ?

Big Ten Action

2006-01-31T14:51:00.000-06:00

Illini at Badgers - a battle between 2 of the better teams in the Big Ten.

Here's what I like in this game...

***Illinois at Wisconsin UNDER 129.5***
Most people who follow the Big Ten know how well Wisconsin defends the Kohl Center. The Badger defense has been phenomenal this year(56ppg). The Illini defense, however, is vastly under-appreciated (#3 team in the nation, adjusted for competition) in my book.

The number of possessions will be very important in this game as well. Wisco averages 69 poss/per game (2nd in Big10), whereas Illinois averages just over 63 (10th in Big10). With Illinois's tenacious D, Bo Ryan will instruct his team to slow down and value the basketball.

Finally, Brown has struggled away from Assembly Hall (averaging 10.8 points on 29.4 percent shooting in the Illini's four road games this season).

Good luck.

-uj

Jan Record:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 4-3-0
NBA 1-1-0
Overall 7-6-0

Recap - Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

2006-01-31T11:56:00.000-06:00

For those of us who had the under in this game, which was set at 140.0, this was a great gambling ending to a lopsided game.

When looking at the recent games, you could tell that Texas Tech wasn't going to bring anything. They had consistently been outscored by a lot on the road (but I didn't want to touch the line, b/c Kansas was giving 14 when I checked it). So I figured it would be a one-sided game, with limited end-of-game fouling (and increased totals).

I was looking good through most of the first half, with limited Texas Tech points (20 pts with just over 1 minute left). But they went on a crazy run - they scored 5 points in the last minute, with Jarrius Jackson hitting a 3-ball with one second on the clock. This made it 43-25 at half, on pace for a total of 136, just under my total.

But in the second half, the teams scored at a quicker pace. With 3 minutes left, the score was 82-52, and I had a bad feeling. With a total of 134, I was only 6 points away from my under losing. After a couple layups, with 1:54 on the clock, the total was 138. I was doomed.

But then, like a god-given miracle, I was gifted with a house of bricks. 5 missed shots later (and no fouls at all), the game clock was a 00:00, and the game was 86-52. No points scored in the last almost 2 minutes. I don't think I've ever said this before: Thank you, Bobby Knight, for the futility of your Red Raiders.

-DL

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As a reminder, I've got picks up over on the Sedge Court Journal hoops contest. I'm trying to claw my way back in it. Still under water, but I'll get out.

Mediocrity

2006-01-30T15:08:00.000-06:00

Mediocrity - I will be happy if I can achieve it. .500 is all I want. I got there on Sat (see below), so I'm feeling ok. Of course, with the house edge, I'll be done with my cash in no time at all.

Today's Mediocre NBA pick of the day is posted here.

In the college ranks, I also like:
Louisville Cardinals +10.5 at Villanova Wildcats
The Nova squad is not that great when favored as 10pt favorite or more (2-4 ATS). Louisville has not been playing well at all, but Taquan Dean will be finally up to speed in this game. Take the points that they are giving, and throw it down on the Cards....

-DL

Saturday sprinkling

2006-01-28T10:08:00.000-06:00

A variety of hoops picks today, see below:

NCAA:

Well, time to get back on this pony. What do you think of these picks here?

Cincy at Georgetown Hoyas -5.5
The Hoyas have been on a little roll, and they're playing at home against a relatively weak Cincy team.

Marquette +10 at Pittsburgh
The Eagles have some momentum going, and they will be covering this number in Pitt.

Arizona Wildcats at North Carolina Tarheels Under 150
This game will be slower than what we have seen from these teams recently. I also think Zona is a good pick getting the points, but take the undies here.

NBA:

New Orleans Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies -6.5
I really like the Grizz this year, and I have lost too much betting against them. The hornets have promise, no doubt, but memphis should take this one at home. Memphis is decent on one day of rest as well (7-4 ATS). Also, Chris Andersen (aka "Birdman" or "White Flight"), who was on the Hornets, was just tossed from the NBA for 2 years. Yes 2 freaking years. Does this surprise anyone else? How is it that he's the only guy to ever have been caught doing these types of drugs in the last 5 years? I don't believe it. (Good quote from the article: "He is best known for his performance in the NBA's dunk contest last year when he needed eight tries to finish his first dunk.")

New Jersey Nets at Seattle Supersonics (or is it just the Sonics?) Under 196.5
The Nets generally have been playing very slow recently, and big Vince is listed as questionable. Which means that he's out, as VC does not play through pain. I cannot see these guys putting up the number, so put your underoos on for this puppy.

NCAA Picks for Thursday

2006-01-26T14:18:00.000-06:00

Gents,

I'm making a little comeback in January. Let's see if we can keep this thing rolling. Couple of picks I like for tonight.

--UCLA vs Oregon OVER 128.5--
Both teams play with a very slow tempo (both in the bottom third of all teams in the NCAA). Upon further review, however, in the same link, you will find evidence that both teams are offensively efficient (not particularly efficient on defense). I think Afflalo will bounce back from his rare 1-9 outing against WV. Take the over.

--Blue Devils -11 vs Virginia Tech--
Not much to write about in this game. Duke bounces back -- refocused after losing at Georgetown -- and beats up on the Hokies by double-digits.

Jan results:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 3-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

Michigan vs Michigan State

2006-01-25T17:47:00.000-06:00

Ladies, the pick of the night is...

Spartans vs Wolverines UNDER 140.5

Surprisingly, both teams play with a slow tempo. Only NU and the Illini average less possessions per 40 mins.

Look at their recent results. The line should be somewhere around 135.

DL - good luck with your bet. I think the Spartys pull out it off, but I'm more confident in the under.

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 2-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

Jacked Up Line of the Night

2006-01-25T15:14:00.000-06:00

My friends, we have yet again a jacked up line of the night, this time in the NBA:

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 at New Orleans Hornets
The Spurs, granted, are a much better home than road team. And granted, both Manu (or is it "El Contusione"?) and Big Shot Bob are on the shelf for this contest. Yes, the Spurs played last night. However, it's the damn spurs against the weak hornets. Take the Spurs.
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Another NBA pick I like:
Denver Nuggets -5 at Portland Trailblazers
These Nuggets are perplexing, yes. But they have been on fire recently, winning their last 6 in a row. The T-blazers haven't been so bad, but I see them as a streaky team, and they just had their 4-game winning run snapped. Bet it on the Nuggs.
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Another pick that I like tonight is in the NCAA - the Michigan State Spartans visiting the Wolverines. I give a little more detail over at the Sedge Court contest (where I made this the Don't-Be-A-Gurly-Man pick of the week), but I think the Spartans are on a big-time roll.

There's a theme, here, taking the road favorites. What do you think?

DL

Hoosiers vs Hawkeyes

2006-01-24T14:47:00.000-06:00

-- Indiana Hoosiers vs Iowa Hawkeyes - Over 129

I think IU bounces back from back-to-back 62 pt showings and puts big points on the board. Mike Davis drives me crazy. An example -- his 2nd-half near collapse vs Illinois earlier this year (IU did collapse ATS in that game. Guess where my money was?). But he is considering inserting Wilmont back into the starting lineup which should provide a spark.

I know that IU has missed the over in 5 of their 6 road games this year, but IU's offense has scored approximately 70 pts a game over the past 5 and Iowa's defense that has given up 69 over the same period.

I tend to agree with JoeJackson. Iowa is not good. Really, if you look at their results. They have 1 solid win (over Illinois) and two OK wins (against NC State in a horrible shooting performance and against an 'at-the-time-was-overrated' Kentucky).

So, IU starts the night off right with an early lead. Then, Iowa gets back in the game after IU serves up free shots of 1 part Mike-Davis-stupidity / 1 part Killingsworth back-pain. I really don't know how this party ends. (I do want to take the IU moneyline (+135) in this game, but I'm still rehydrating from my last Mike Davis hangover).

-uj

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 1-1-0

Hot or Not?

2006-01-24T09:27:00.000-06:00

as we know, good gambling is about catching teams on runs or rolls. with college, you never know who joined the century club the nite before (i'm not talkin' wilt here) or, in the nba, who put their hot poker in the backside of some hotel's hired help. you just never know. but, here's what we do know and teams i expect to ride through the week:

Who's Not Hot:

'Cuse: Time to pick a new way to get your vitamin C. the orange has been squeezed, flopping at home against UCONN and then tumbling at 'Nova and Pitt. We're talking 0-3 ATS ugly. The hottest thing in Syracuse is still Jimmy Boeheim's wife. Not bad for a guy who looks like the mechanical mouse that just stepped off the Chuckee Cheese stage.

The 'Cuse has bottomed out. BUT, look for them to get healthy at home the same way MSU did after going 0-2 ATS on the road against IL and WI

Iowa: Steve Alford is not a good coach. The only thing worse is his skin. Can you say Pro-Activ? They're 0-3 ATS in their last three, not covering at home against Minny, and then failing miserably at PSU and MSU. Look for their slide to continue. Their starting five of 28 year-old white boys are tired.

Louisville: They'll need more than Taquaen Dean to get started back up. After Louie Carneseca and Marc Jackons willed the Johnnies to a home floor win over the Red-birds, they failed to parlay gimmick Gameday mojo into competitiveness against UCONN.

Who's Hot

MSU: Looked like Coach Izzo took his team of heartless lions to see the wonderful wizard and came away with some heart. MSU may have turned the corner against the BuckNuts (thank you, Mr. Moneyline) and then played well against MSU. If you get a number of less than three at Ann Arbor tomorrow nite, jump on it. They need another road win.

Texas: Don't look now, but the team that looked like Mack Brown was on the bench against Duke and Tennessee must have put Vince at the point alongside Tucker. Texas is rolling ATS. Look for that to continue. Especially at home. I'm not sold on the Longhorns on the road. Not yet. Unless they face a Gary Barnett coached team.

The WV. Have to give the Big East some love. The mounties looked like Moses on Mr. Jinx (meet the parents 2) in los angeles and throttled a solid marquette team at home. I like them giving numbers this week, especially when they host teams in the backwoods.

Extra Free Basketball Picks for Tonight

2006-01-23T17:24:00.000-06:00

OK, so I've already posted about one of these, but I'll throw another here too:

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers -4
I think you have to take Pitt in this game. I know that Pitt just lost to the Johnnies, but the 'Cuse has not been playing well at all. Did anyone else see Gerry-Mac crying on the bench at the end of the Villanova game? What was the deal with that? Anyways, the Orange have talent, but not enough to hang with Pitt's big bodies inside. I've already posted this as one of my picks over at the Sedge Court contest.

New Jersey Nets Pick'em at Utah Jazz
The Jazz have been playing poorly as of late, and in particular their defense has been sub-par, allowing 104 over the last 5 (season average of 92.9). While the have not been playing particularly spectacularly against the spread (3-7 in their last 10), they have won 6 of those games, as well as 3 of the last 4. I do not think the Jazz can run like the Nets will be able to, and there is good value in this line. Take the New Jersey Nets. And the Damn Vince can Dunk Act (aka the DVDA).

-DL
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Check some other sites here:
JT Sneaks is on Pitt, but disagrees with my NBA play.
WagerKing is on Pitt too, as is Sedge Court poster Shadow.

Hoops Picks Contest at Sedge Court

2006-01-23T11:40:00.000-06:00

Just a reminder that I'm participating in the Sedge Court Journal handicapping contest, and it starts off today. I'll keep you updated with when I throw a pick over there, so you can know what to bet against.... The official rules are right here.

I'm working on a pick or two for tonight, but I've got some other stuff going on. Check back later.

-DL

College Hoops Pick - On Championship Sunday?

2006-01-22T11:05:00.000-06:00

Yes, that's right. I'm looking into some college hoops on this glorious Sunday, and I've found some good value betting against Bobby Huggins' old squad of Bearcats:

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +8.5 at Cincinnati Bearcats
I fully believe that Rutgers has a good chance to actually win this game, but I'll still take the points. Cincy has not been playing well at all, and Rutgers actually played Pitt fairly tough (before having the lead extended late and losing ATS). Cincy has not been playing well at all, with losses to Xavier and the 'Cuse (as well as an excusable loss to the UConn Huskies). Take the Scarlet Knights, folks.

-Doing Lines

NFL - AFC Championship Game

2006-01-22T10:18:00.000-06:00

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

What will happen in this mighty match of two running offenses against two run-stopping defenses? This has gotten a lot of hype, but as you'll see here, while the Broncos and Steelers are ranked 2nd and 3rd in rushing yards per game, the Broncos actually allow 4.0 yards per rush which is 15th in the league. Pittsburgh is first at 3.4 YPR. So why do teams rush fewer number of times against the Broncos? Maybe because they have the 29th rated passing defense (in yards per game) at 227.7, which means that overall, the Broncos have the 15th rated defense in yards per game. The Steelers are fourth.

So, what is the number one prediction for this game? The line, as of right now, is Steelers +3 with at least +100 on the back end. I think that you need to take the Steelers money line. According to Moneyliners, during these playoffs, the straight up winners are 8-0 ATS. Or another way to put it - if you bet on the underdog and you won your bet, they won the game. Which means that if you're considering any underdog, you might as well throw it down on the Moneyline. As Moneyliner is doing, for both games. I think I'll ride with him on this one too.

But, with greater weight, I will throw down on the Over 41.0 in this game. I believe that these teams will bust through this, especially with the Steelers able to throw the ball (just not towards Champ).

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Check other NFL free picks, besides Moneyliners, at our buddies Online Sports Bettor, JT Sneaks, and a couple by the Sedge Court Journal crew.

A plethora of Saturday college hoops picks

2006-01-21T11:53:00.000-06:00

After Union Jack and I threw up that O-fer yesterday, we need some comeback picks. I've got the following smattering of lines that I like today (well, beginning with the afternoon games, due to my late rising time), in the NCAA:

West Virginia Mountaineers +2.5 at UCLA Bruins
Gotta love the Mountaineers with their array of game. And with Pittsnogle (even though his wife can apparently drop into labor at any second). I like WV to take this game down, even if it is in Pauley.
preview

UConn Huskies at Louisville Cardinal Under 144.5
I just don't think the Cardinal can score without Taquan Dean on the team. They have averaged 64.5 in the three games without him (including a 81 pt game against UC Davis).
preview

Cal Bears +7.5 at Arizona Wildcats
I just think that the Bears have been underachieving throughout the Pac-10 season, and they have the ability to pound it inside with Leon Powe. Look for the moneyline on this one as well.
preview

Syracuse Orange +8 at Villanova Wildcats
Villanova has yet to show that they can blow anyone in the Big East out. Their closest was a 9 pointer at Louisville (who is clearly overrated). Take the Orange (and the Irishman), but you may want to tease it a bit. Also, pray that Billy Raftery is doing the game.
preview

Oregon State at Washington State Over 119.5
The Beavers are playing better than people think, even without Lamar Hurd (starting pg). You may want to take them getting the 7+ the hook as well, up north. There will be offense in this game.
preview

What do you think?

The NBA Streak

2006-01-20T17:38:00.000-06:00

Alright, now as I've stated before, the NBA isn't my cup-of-tea. But I'm undefeated. I'm perfect. Let's see how long this can last...

--Memphis -3.0 at Philadelphia--

Grizzly-Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two squads. Philly has been playing pretty piss-poor as of late, losers of their last four ATS and 2-8 ATS in the past 10.

DL, FYI, I will join my Memphis pick with your Nets and Golden Eagle (Wager King likes Marquette as well) selections for my first ever patent bet.

Come bet with us. Heck, it's better than the market these days.

Jan results:

NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 1-0-0

Friday Night Lights - Big East Matchup

2006-01-20T16:20:00.000-06:00

Big (and only) matchup in the Grande-East tonight, as the non-Charlie Weis-led Notre Dame Fighting Irish (yes, I miss John Macleod too) visit the Marquette Golden Eagles for a fun three-bombing. The Irish are coming off a big win over Providence (ooooooooh). Apparently Brady and Laura's long lost nephew Chris Quinn went off, and Colin Falls dropped some bombs on the Friars (apparently that's all he does - 127 of his 165 field goal attempts are from distance). ND shot 61% from behind the arc in that game.

The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, just handled the DePaul Demons in Chicago (well, Rosemont actually), with Steve Novak dropping 24 and a solid contribution from Dominic James.

I have see ND play at home, I've seen them play on the road. They are not a good basketball team - they have lost some serious in-conference games. I believe in Marquette in this game. Pick is:
Notre Dame at Marquette -3.5

As Al McGuire said, "When I was losing, they called me nuts. When I was winning, called me eccentric."

Call me eccentric, baby.

Back on the Horse

2006-01-20T13:23:00.000-06:00

So, after getting tossed around for a while, much like Eminem and Kim Mathers, I'm jumping right back on the horse. That's right, my Doing Lines friends, I'm going back to the NBA. I must be some kind of glutton for punishment....

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New Jersey Nets -1.5 at Boston Celtics
I know the Celtics are on a roll against the spread right now (6 in a row), and the Nets have not been doing well (2-6 in their last 8, ATS). But over those 8 games, the Nets are actually 5-3 straight up. The Celts, in their 6 ATS wins are actually 2-4 SU. With a line as low as 1.5, I believe that you always have to bet on the team that is playing better overall. I'm hooking this horse up to the run-and-gun Nets. Here's a preview.

Giddy Up. Or Whinny. Neigh? OK, Susim tsohalim.......

Screwed by the Lakers

2006-01-20T08:59:00.000-06:00

OK, I'm fine losing that bet last night, generally. I understand that the Sacramento Kings played better than I expected, and that's fine. So they won the game by 9 points (and beat my bet by 11.5). But the goddamn Lakers were up by 5 with 35 seconds left, after soon-to-be-hated Lamar Odom threw down a three-bomb off a nice Kobe feed. So feeling good........

But then Chris Mihm fouled out, sending Brad Miller to the line. Which led to this most-frightening statement in the play-by-play log:

0:32 Chris Mihm shooting foul (Brad Miller draws the foul)
0:32 Kwame Brown enters the game for Chris Mihm

Oh god. Even though I was up 2 points over my pick, I realized I was betting, at that point, on unstable Kwame Brown and fire-it-up Lamar Odom.

Naturally, (after a miss and a make by Brad Miller at the line) this is what transpires after that, with the Lakers up by 4 and 32 seconds left:

Lamar Odom drives the ball into the lane with 17 seconds on the shot clock. Doug Collins, the whole Laker bench, the entire LA Lakers fan base, and every single fool who bet on this sorry team wonders why the hell he's going so early. Of course, he's called for a charge (the correct call) with 22 seconds left in the game (14 on the shot clock). After the game, Lamar said, "I take the blame for that one. I should have run the clock down a little bit more. First time in a long time my aggressiveness beat me." Thanks, Lamar.
Mike Bibby gets wide open for a three pointer, only 4 seconds into the play, after getting a simple screen from Brad Miller. The screen got Smush Parker, so Kwame Brown, the man 'sticking' Brad Miller, is supposed to extend out. He wasn't even close, playing with his moody self in the middle of the key. Bibby drops the 3, and it's a 1 point game, with 18 seconds remaining.
After Kobe gets fouled and makes both free throws, the Kings have the ball at half-court with 13 seconds left. Lets recap, up to this point, where we are. The Kings are up by 3 points. I have the Lakers giving 2.5. All I need, personally, is for the Kings to miss. From the Lakers perspective, you expect they'll go for the 3 ball. So, if you're the Lakers (including, last I checked, Kwame Brown), I'm pretty sure you guard the three point line. Well, our buddy Kwame came through again, and left Brad Miller (who is known for his outside, though not necessarily 3-point, touch) wide open for a three. Which leads to a tie game (and disturbing celebrations like this).
Lakers have the ball with 4 seconds left in regulation. And the 'most-clutch' late-game shooter since Jordan. So, our buddy Lamar is supposed to get the ball and drop it to the Kobe-ster for a last second (hopefully) three-ball. Lamar himself decides to take it, even though Kobe is very available (i.e. wide open) to drop it to. Bad brick. Leads to overtime, but at that point I knew I was fu**ed. Kings won going away.

Absolutely f'n ridiculous. I would be ashamed to be a fan of this team. I'm already ashamed to have bet on 'em.

Thanks for listening...

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A Bit Knicked Up

2006-01-19T13:41:00.000-06:00

Now, I'll be the first one to admit that the NBA isn't exactly Union Jack's forte. Rarely do I have a strong opinion on the subject. Instead, I typically ride on the coat-tails of my mates Doing Lines and WindyCityParlay.

But, I like the Pistons to cover tonight.

-- Pistons - 10.5 over the Knicks --

1) Antonio Davis will likely be sitting this contest out.

2) Along with Stephon Marbury.

3) And Detroit is rolling right now (all season for that matter). And they are playing against Larry Brown.

4) Not to mention the Knicks are coming off an overtime loss to the Bulls last night.

Jan results
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-2-0
NBA 0-0-0

Los Angeles' Black Mamba Lakers

2006-01-19T11:47:00.000-06:00

Ok, this is the first post to touch on the Lakers since Mr. Black Mamba made up with Shaq-Fu. That was all well and good, but the overlooked story of that game was Kobe and the Lakers handling the Miami Heat relatively easily. It seems that the Los Angeles men in gold have really turned the corner (6-1 SU in their last 7) led by Captain Zen.

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Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 at Sacramento Kings
Tonight, the Lakers are going against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings came off a blowout win over the Phoenix Suns, with ridiculous nights from K-Mart (no, not that one, this one) and Francisco Garcia (yes, Franky, they miss you over in Louisville. But they'll only accept you if you stop writing circumcision articles*).

In any event, for this game, I expect Kobe Bryant to be pumped up for a late-night battle against the old-rivals Sacto Kings. Looks like Peja is going to play, but I don't think the Queens will bring the same defensive intensity they did last game (held the Suns to 37.5%).

I take the Lakers.

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*Good god. Did you see that article? Francisco discusses the "triple whammy" of losing sensitivity after circumcision. This, my friends, is really frightening stuff. Why does Franky G know so much about this? Was this Rick Pitino's motivational technique?

2006-01-18T16:41:00.000-06:00

Late day pick (yeah, it's taken me all day to get over the IU / U of I result)...

---Wisconsin at Ohio State Under 139.5---

At first glance, my numbers suggest the total for this game should be about 140. But, upon further review, Ohio State's recent offensive numbers include a Double OT game against MSU and a 100pt blowout against PSU.

OSU wins 63-60, or something like that...

Oh, and DL, I'll roll with you on the Exotic Feline train.

Jan results:
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-1-0

Hoops picks on Wednesday

2006-01-18T13:24:00.000-06:00

A couple treats for the hoops fan - both NBA and NCAA.

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Charlotte Bobcats +9.5 at Indiana Pacers
The battle of 2 injury-plagued teams. This is also my pick of the week over at the Sedge Court contest. The Bobcats are a good covering team, especially when they are getting these kinds of points: as a greater-than 8 point dog, the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS. As a greater-than 8 point favorite, the Pacers are 1-4 ATS.
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Pittsburgh Panthers -2.5 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
OK, Pitt is 14-0 overall, and Rutgers 12-4. Rutgers may play somewhat better at home, but I don't seeing them being able to stop the Panthers, and the quickness of Carl Krauser. From what I can tell, it seems like Rutgers, and especially Quincy Douby, enjoys to drop the three-bombs. Pitt will need to be able to defend against that, and play inside-outside with Aaron Gray and Krauser.

Well, that's my guess, after seeing zero of either teams' games this year. Bet on the Panthers.
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Big-10 has got me down recently, so I'm not sure what to do with the Wisconsin Badgers v. Ohio State Buckeyes. What do you think? Badgers are getting 4-and-a-half in C-bus.....

Getting Jacked in the Big 10

2006-01-18T08:38:00.000-06:00

Now, to be fair, I missed my bet by a good 13 points, so I didn't have such a good night with the Illinois v. Indiana match in the NCAA. But, dedicated poster Union Jack had a rougher evening.

Union had Mike Davis' squad giving the 2 plus the hook, and he was looking good. With six-and-a-half left, the home team Hoosiers were up by a tenner, and the two senior Illini had 4 fouls each. But a run by last year's runner-up national champions cut the lead to 2 with a minute remaining. The Indiana home team had the ball, however, and after an exchange of possessions with no points scored, they went inside to big Marco Killingsworth, who was hacked. Marco calmly stepped to the line and clanged the first, but dropped the second, with 20 seconds left.

The Illini then went for the 3-bomb, but Dee couldn't connect. Jamar Smith however dropped in the tip shot, and the Hoosiers were only up 1. So, Union Jack is hoping for both free throws by the Hoosiers, with Robert Vraden stepping to the line. First drops. Second clangs. Final spread is 2. Union's bet is Jacked.

Kicker: this line ended up at 1.5. So others out there (who shall remain nameless) may have won this bet....

College Hoops Big 10 gambling mess

2006-01-17T11:09:00.000-06:00

What is the deal with the Big 10, anyways? Are these teams (outside of the Wisco Badgers) really actually good? Or are they just impressing themselves (and AP voters) by beating a higher-ranked in-conference team one day and losing to a lower-ranked in-conference team the next? Look at the conference's middle of the pack in conference play:

Illini - beat Michigan & MSU, lost to Iowa.
Indiana - beat Michigan & Ohio St, lost to MSU.
Iowa - beat Penn St & Illinois, lost to Wisco.
Michigan State - beat Indiana & Ohio St, lost to Wisconsin and Illinois.
Ohio State - beat Penn St & Purdue, lost to MSU and Indiana.
Northwestern - beat Minnesota & Purdue, lost to Penn St & Wisconsin. (yes, I consider the 'Cats wholly part of the 'middle-of-the-Big-10-pack.' 2-2 in conference, baby).

The Big 10 is going to end the regular season with 5-6 teams in the top 25 - one in the top 10 [Wisco, likely, b/c of their start and their favorable schedule - they get Michigan (on the road), Indiana and Illinois (both at home) only once], and 4 in the 15 - 25 range because they're going to be killing each other all year. For tourney purposes, that means one #3 seed, five or six #6-#8 seeds, and maybe a low #11 or so.

But what will they do in the tourney? Given the coaching in this league, and the depth of talent at all these schools, I think you should favor them heavily in March. But lets wait a bit, and see how the rest of this season plays out....

On to tonight's pick:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers
I see my buddy Union Jack threw down some cash on the Hoosiers. Not a bad move, generally. I generally liked how they started against the Sparts, even without DJ White, and as JoeJackson and I discussed, if that game is in Indiana, then it could go either way. And I like that they are coming home for this matchup against the Illini. But I do have one particular issue with this game: Mike Davis scares the hell out of me. So I don't think I'm going to ride the Hoosier train with you, Union. Instead, my thoughts are this: There are going to be some points scored in this game - heavy points. The Illini are substantially worse defensively on the road than at home (granted, they've only played 2 actual road games all year). I expect this to be a running game (quite different from the defensive slow-down ugly-fest that was the weekend MSU-OSU matchup - recapped here and here). So, my pick is:
Illini at Indiana Over 135

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As I mentioned a while back, the Sedge Court Journal crew has invited me to participate in their basketball handicapping contest. I threw down my first post for that contest here.

More College Basketball...

2006-01-17T10:09:00.000-06:00

Great showing last night by Connecticut. Boy, did they look good. 5 players in double-digits. Marcus Williams -- a game high 11 dimes. He is back. UConn will be around in late March.

Tonights NCAAB pick,

--Hoosiers -2.5 over the Fighting Illini--

In conversations with a few diehard Illinois fans, no one has expressed confidence in the Fighting Illini. I have also gleaned the following...

Offensively, Illinois is 2 dimensional (Dee and Augustine). The Illini will get better as the season progresses with the maturity of Jamar Smith and Shaun Pruit, but at this point in the season DB and JA have combined to score nearly 60% of Illinois's points through 3 Big Ten games. Mike Davis will focus on Dee in particular, forcing the young Illini to step up and make plays.

Defensively, Illinois plays primarily man-to-man. IU will spread the floor with sharpshooters Vaden and Strickland, and with Killingsworth inside, the Hoosiers will create matcup problems for the Illini.

I know Indiana is coming off a poor showing against the Spartys, as Doing Lines himself properly prognosticated, but the Hoosiers match up much better against the Illini. IU wins this one by 10.

Jan Record
NFL 2-2-0
CBB 1-0-0

Career Week-end and Other Considerations

2006-01-16T15:21:00.000-06:00

On the heals of a money-line parlay that turned its nose at taking the charity for the men of steel, sparty v. bucknuts and 'Cuse vs. Cincy, I have some lingering considerations....

Does Nick Harper deposit the bus' spare tire in the end-zone if he doesn't have a hole in his knee? Eugene Robinson makes that play.

Does Vanderchoke push through the game-tying field goal if he's not sporting his wannabe press-on earring?

Does Jose Cortez make that kick?

Do the Colts need Tee Martin to get to the next level?

Does Champ Bailey have the biggest melon in the history of cornerbacks? Could he have stopped Steve Smith on Sunday?

Will Super Bowl XL quarterback match-up feature a tandem of QBs with the least and most hair in the history of NFL quarterbacks? Wolfman Plummer v. Hasselnohair?

Have there been more fumbles over pylon than any other year in the history of the League

Is Rex Grossman googling Cade McNown today?

50%

2006-01-16T11:25:00.000-06:00

In baseball, batting 0.500 for a weekend series is an accomplishment.

In basketball, 50% from the field is a good days work.

In gambling, 50% for the weekend is a disappointment.

Chi/Car and NE/Den both played out more-or-less how I'd anticipated. As for the Skins/Hawks game, anyone else pissed off at John Hall for missing the 36 yd chip shot for the cover? And the Colts / Steelers game...completely missed the boat on that one. DL made some cash there, I believe.

To pass the time, a pick for tonight...

The Connecticut Huskies -1.5 over The Syracuse Orangemen (I mean Orange)

G-Mac cools off and the Huskies roll...

January Record
2-2-0

Bears v. Panthers - the one thing everyone is forgetting about

2006-01-15T10:53:00.000-06:00

OK, ok, I know the Panthers have been playing well. And I know they demolished a bad Giants team (which was great for everyone outside NYC, by the way). And I know they'll be ready for this game against the Chicago Bears. So many of the prognosticators are saying 'throw the first game out' and picking them to take down the men of Chi-town. But everyone is forgetting an important thing:

The Bears were using their backup rookie QB in the first game. Not their starting QB. Backup, rookie. People are terribly underestimating this. The Bears have shown the ability (in the game.5 that rex has played) to extend the field, to run passing plays on first down, and to generally get the ball in the air. These are all things they did not trust K-Orton to do. In today's NFL, with the secondaries as good as they are, you cannot put the game in the hands of a Kyle Orton. Rex Grossman, however, is a huge step up.

Another couple of points:

In the last game, Carolina was riding a 6 game winning streak. You cannot say they were playing badly.
The Carolina road wins this year are (with final records): Arizona (5-11), Detroit (5-11), Tampa Bay (11-5), Buffalo (5-11), New Orleans (3-13), and a bad end-of-year Atlanta team (8-8). That's a .385 winning percentage of opponents.
Thomas Jones will rush for over 90 yards, barring him getting Kimo'd or Alexander'd.

Take the Bears, and lay the points (was 3, but shrinking fast)....

DL

NFL Sunday

2006-01-15T10:15:00.000-06:00

So after hitting an early 2-banger (Hawks giving the puentas with the under), I was feeling good about my Saturday. But then the Patsies did not play like they should have (Ben Watson's effort notwithstanding), and I ended up with a down day. That's what happens when they play the mans game on the true sabbath..

But, today's games are going to be the real games. This is NFL Sunday, the way it was meant to be played...

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Colts at Steelers

Colts obviously demolished them in the first game.
Steelers are playing better, and Rothlisberger is healthier
Colts, the ultimate preparing team, will be more prepared for this game than anything they've played in.

I'm teasing the Steelers at +10, pushing it to maybe +17. I'm not sure, however, if they can actually win this game. Does anyone think they actually can?

I also may put the Undies on for this one, b/c I think the defenses will be very ready (esp the Pittsburgh D, after getting burnt early in game 1).

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WagerKing takes Indy, and MoneyLiners likes the Pitt moneyline, naturally.
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More on second game in a bit....

Redskins Seahawks thoughts

2006-01-14T09:46:00.000-06:00

I don't have a strong preference on which way this game will go. But this is what I'm thinking about it:

C-Portis is injuried. Pretty jacked up, apparently. If you saw that TD run he threw in against the Bucs, he took the hit right on one of his injured shoulders, and supposedly got a stinger (hence the LaDell Betts time late game).
9.5 points (10 at some books) is a lot of points.
It's raining in Sea-town, all day. Who has the better running game? Seattle, clearly.
The Redskins have basically played 5 elimination games in a row. Will this drag on them?
If the Redskins' offense performs like it did last week, they won't cover.
I cannot see the Redskins winning this game. At all. Does this mean we go with the Sports Guy's adage (Manifesto Rule #10 - Only pick an underdog or a road team if you're convinced it has the chance to win the game outright)?
9.5 is really a lot of points.
Mike Holmgren or Joe Gibbs? Gibbs, of course, is 16-5 all time in the playoffs, but he is getting up to Joe-Pa (Joe-Ga?) status, delegating nearly all of his work (not including Joe Gibbs Racing duties). Holmgren has a less-than-impressive playoff record (9-8, 0-3 without Favre), and has been known to outcoach himself.
This line opened at 9 and has moved up. According to wagerline, at all points, more bettors were taking the skins. So why was the line moving up?

Not sure what the conclusion is. Tease this puppy, so it's Hawks giving 3 or so? Or do the Skins actually have a chance in this game, and should I play with that side of the line?

Hmmmmm....

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Also, Sedge has more picks up here, Onine Sports Bettor here, and Moneyliners here.

2006-01-13T16:28:00.000-06:00

Testing, testing...

Uh, hello. Union Jack, here. Uh, um...does this thing work?

[akward silence]

Well first, I want to thank man above because without him, I wouldn't have NFL playoffs to wager on.

Second, I would like to extend my gratitude to Doing Lines. Thanks for the generous, albeit careless, invitation to post/gamble amongst fine brethren such as yourselves.

Now, as we all know, online gambling is not a sometime thing; it's an all time thing. You don't win once in awhile, you don't do things right once in awhile...ALL RIGHT, enough with the introductory/motivation speech...ON TO MY PICKS.

--Carolina +2.5 over the Bears--
Yes, Chicagoans, you read it right. The Bears will not cover. Heck, they may very well lose this game.

1) Health - A healthy Jake Delhomme, a healthy DeShaun Foster. Carolina will rush for more than 55 yards this go-around.

2) Steve Smith - 14 catches, 169 yards AND NO TOUCHDOWNS. That's a fluke, my friends. I don't buy the whole bend-but-don't-break philosophy (excuse?).

3) T-Rex Grossman - Quick trivia, who has more career starts, Rex or Kyle Orton?

4) Coaching - John Fox vs Lovie Smith.

5) The Bears played a patsy schedule with 6 games against GB, MN, and DT (or is it DL?).

Gosh, I'm running out of steam here. I swear it's not my first time...

--Denver -3.0 over the Patriots--
Yes, all you Bridget Moynahan fans, the Patriots will go down. As a side note, as the Patriots dynasty ends, does Brady spiral into depression and end up with Tara Reid at his side? Hey, at least he'll now have something in commom with Kyle Boller.

In any case, not much to this game. Everyone loves the Patriots (and the Bears, for that matter). I'm going against the grain.

1) Denver is at home. Where they are 8-0 (5-2-1 ATS). With a long week to prepare. Also, over the past 5 years, Denver is 3-1 ATS vs Patriots.

2) Big match up here? Denver's rushing attack (2nd in the NFL at 158.7 ypg) vs NE rushing defense (98.8 ypg). I think Denver wins this matchup.

I'm exhausted. DL, I don't know how you do this on a regular basis.

For the sake of brevity, I give you:

--Washington +9.5 over Seattle--
Redskins 5-0-1 ATS in their last 5. Seattle is the trendy pick. Seattle wins by 3.

--Colts -9.5 over Pittsburgh--
I see a repeat of the game earlier this year. Peyton strikes early, throws Pit out of their game plan (ie you can't run the ball 100 times if you are down 2 touches. Ok, you can, but you will lose, by 2 touches). And that's exactly what will happen.

Union Jack, ten-four, over and out.

0-0-0. [Nothing like a fresh start]

More NFL Playoff Thoughts - Pats v. Broncos

2006-01-13T15:57:00.000-06:00

This game is highly intriguing to me. I think there are 2 plays on the line:

New England Moneyline
This is sitting at +140 right now, and I honestly think that these guys are going to take down the Broncs in this game. I don't know why Shanahan and the 'stached-Snake will be able to stand in their way. But, if you are concerned about this, then....

New England +3 or Teaser (to +9/+10)
I have a very strong feeling that the Pats will win, but I know that they will not lose by more than a score. I think you throw these in a teaser. Or, like you can do on bet365.com, you just put this line somewhere in the middle, at a +7 (add the hook, if you want it). But I feel very good about this one.

Sorry OSB, we disagree....

NFL Appetizer

2006-01-13T11:37:00.000-06:00

For those of you holding back the tears that will flow after the last football Saturday of the season, here's a Friday PM distraction.

Denver +6.5 at Minny. Nuggles have been on a nice roll, while Minny has stumbled lately and only covered because Captain Kirk did not take the complimentary down by six last second deuce.

The Best Weekend in the NFL (Underoos back on)

2006-01-13T09:23:00.000-06:00

It's gotta be the best NFL weekend, right? Not the first weekend of the playoffs, because 4 of the best teams don't play. Perhaps opening weekend, because there's so much hope for every team (in most recent years). But this weekend, you get 4 very intriguing matchups with the best teams. So that's my stand. Best weekend in the NFL.

Anyways, I know the Doing Lines blog posse has their own particular thoughts on these games, and I'd be interested to hear them. I have one particular pick this weekend that I like:

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Under 44
Yes, you read that right. I'm putting my Underoos back on for this game. The Broncos were one of the best scoring defenses in the league, allowing 16.1 points per game (3rd in the League), and only 12.5 at home (one thing to watch out for, though, is that they are middle-of-the pack in their yards allowed per game - 2nd in rush yards allowed at 85, but 29th in passing yards allowed). The Patsies defense was hampered by injuries all year, but they are allowing only 10.3 over their last 6 (including the meaningless 28 they gave up to Miami in the Flutie-drop-kick-game).

Put 'em on with me.....

What are your thoughts on this line, other lines, other games?

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Check out some of the Sedge Court Journal Picks.
The Online Sports Bettor really likes Denver laying the points.
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New Features at Doing Lines

2006-01-12T11:58:00.000-06:00

Yo - Check out the 2 new features we've posted here, in the right sidebar:

1) Categories - you can click on the categories listed and it will search for any posts on this blog that are related to that topic. I'm still trying to refine the college section to get a breakout of NCAA hoops vs. football, but I've got about 8 months before I really have to worry about that.

2) Contributor Posts - click on each contributor, and you can review all their posts. I'm considering looking back at everyone's picks and getting a consolidated record for each of us, but I think that'll just be embarassing for me....

The Association pick - TNT Thursday

2006-01-12T10:00:00.000-06:00

Finally had a decent dollar day yesterday (though Duke - Maryland didn't help, and the Knicks win kind of brought me down, emotionally). Maybe I'll write a James Frey -like memoir (or is it a 'semi-fictional text'?) of my addictions and recovery. Except mine would be true, and recovery may not be an option. Anyways, lets build on the momentum, Association style

Another great Thursday with a limited slate of games. Thank you Teddy Turner (and Ernie, Kenny, and Charles). A couple of decent games are on TNT, with the Pistons visiting the Spurs in the early match, and Cavs at Lakers in the nightcap (while for some reason, the fun offensive shootout of the Warriors at the Suns is scheduled on this night as well, with no TV in sight east of Flagstaff). Right now, I really only like one of these lines:

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Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs, Over 177
I was thinking about the line in this game (Spurs -4), and my initial instinct said that the Pistons could easily win this game. But instinct #2 said this could also be an easy 8 point win for the Spurs, if the Flip doesn't have his boys ready to play. So instincts didn't help.

But looking at what these teams have done this year is impressive, from a scoring front. I think this line is being artificially dragged down by their Christmas meeting earlier this season, when the Pistons beat the Spurs in Detroit. However, Manu wasn't in that game, and you know he only adds points (at both ends of the floor). Take off the Undies, we're going Over....

ACC style

2006-01-11T18:26:00.000-06:00

Well, just because everyone is doing it...

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Maryland +13 at Duke
In the story of conflicting meaningless storylines, Duke is going for their 100th win vs. MD, and apparently the Terps are shooting for the first 4-game winning streak over the Dookies since the early seventies, or something.

Anyways, believe in the Terps. Not sure why. I don't think Gary W is a good coach. Baby Strawberry is highly overrated, right? But, as we all know, JJ is reddick-ulous. Anyways, 13 is a lot to give..... Take the Terps..

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More Big 10 Juice

2006-01-11T11:48:00.004-06:00

After another rough day yesterday (but improving over recent days, especially due to the nice Nets cover last night which included a much-needed Scotty Padgett 3-bomb with not much time left), I'm going to try my hand again at Big 10 hoops:

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Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan St Spartans -4
Now, this game was -5 earlier in the day, and it has crept to -4. IU is coming off 2 nice home wins, against Michigan and the Bucknuts. The Spartans, as has been well-enough documented, are having some slight issues, going 0-2 in Big 10 play with losses at both Wisconsin and the Illini. So, it's the first in-conference home game for Sparty, and the first in-conference road game for the Hooze. IU is also dealing with the loss of DJ White, the all-important inside player for them. I expect that Izzo will also have Paul Davis ready to go against the depleted Hoosier front line (especially after the terrible offensive outing he had up in Badger-land). Izzo will not go 0-3 in this conference.

What do you think about the Over / Under in this game, of 146.5? I am interested to know your thoughts. IU plays a high-paced game (and the spartans are middle of the pack), which means lots of scoring. But this is the Big 10, baby! Look at the MSU opener in Champaign - The Illinois Orange-folk of high-scoring fame only managed 60 (and Sparty only dropped 50).

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No NFL preview yet (though I can't wait for the other posters to throw their thoughts up here), but in anticipation of watching Sean Taylor on the field again, check out this slow-mo link of his vicious attack which got him tossed last week (click on the "Taylor spits on Pittman" link).

Unbelievable (for me) ending to the Battle of the Furry Mammals

2006-01-10T20:20:00.000-06:00

My pick was the Wisconsin Badgers giving the single in the land of the Gopher-of-many-lakes, and I felt solid about it. Felt a little uneasy when I couldn't get online until late in the day, when it had grown to a triple, but thanks to the IT help of Windy City Parlay, I was still able to get it in at 3.

I was sitting pretty early in this battle of the Furry Mammals, with the Badgas up by 19 points over the Gophers deep into the first half. But the golden rodents came back and took a 2nd half lead with just over 60 seconds on the clock. But my guy Alando dropped a dunk on the Minnesota crew, and Wisco had the lead for good. After a couple misses and the Madison-based youngsters hitting their free throws, I had a 5 pt lead, and felt fine about the 3 points I was giving. But what happened? Rico Tucker comes down, with the meaningless trifecta with no time remaining. Rico wha-? Rico who-? Rico T, apparently, the same guy who had hit 1-12 coming into the game.

In summary, I lost my $ bet. I guess on the bright side, I won my bet posted here, which is a big improvement over what I've been playing with recently....

Another NBA taste for tonight

2006-01-10T18:59:00.000-06:00

As the Badgers try to blow the game (up 25-6 with 3:15 left in the first half, it's an ever-shrinking 8pt lead at half), I'm liking the New Jersey Nets tonight. They are getting 8 big points in San Antone, and I know Richie Jeff may be out, but its sounding like he's going to suit up. The Nets have been on fire....

NBA Nibble

2006-01-10T17:46:00.000-06:00

Quite simply, the Knicks (fresh off their first 3 game win streak of the season...30% of their win total on the year) are a gift at +9 tonight against LeBron and co. Take the Knicks, plus the points, plus Larry Brown's colostomy bag.

Later,

WCP

College Hoops Pick o' the day

2006-01-10T09:04:00.000-06:00

After a stellar 1-15-1 week of handicapping (the push was the Natl Champ game. Wait, what?), I'm back on the college basketball wagon.

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Wisconsin -1 at Minnesota

Today, I really like something about that Big 10 matchup of Wisconsin at Minnesota. First of all, I think that the Badgers will win this game. I know that their 2 losses are both on the road (against Pitt and Wake), and all their good wins are at home. But Alando Tucker will come back and have a better game than he had last game (note 5-17 from the floor and 6-17 from the line). Also, Minnesota really is an up tempo team that generally can't handle the slooow-down of Wisconsin (like the slooow down of Northwestern). Also, Minnesota has pretty poor 3-pt FG defense, and I expect 'sconny to be able to exploit it.

The O/U of 134 is also quite appealing. I think that they will go through it, but I think I'll stay away. Haven't had a great run of Over/Unders recently...

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On a side note, I will be joining a Basketball Picks contest over at the Sedge Court Journal, beginnning next week. I'm aiming for a perfect season (like New Mexico State). Thanks to those guys for including me in it.....

Screw this - I'm going under....

2006-01-08T14:40:00.000-06:00

....in the Pit Cincy game. Under 46.5. I'll throw down a make-up bet for all my other losses (here and here).....

On another note, WVA beat down 'Nova on their turf. Gotta love Pittsnogle....

Check the Pittsnogle blog here - not bad, but they really need more pics. Like this one.

Bloody Saturday

2006-01-08T11:37:00.000-06:00

Ouch. Another terrible day yesterday for yours truly, though it appears that ShoelessJoe had a nice little day for hisself. Today, how can I recover?

Over 44.5 Panthers at Giants
Despite my major miscalculations on overs yesterday, I'm, going to keep hitting them. I don't know who to like in this game, but I do like there to be some mejor points scored. Rack em up, boys....

Steelers at Bungles +3
So, you think the Steelers are on a roll? That's fine, but I think taking the points for a home team is what you need to do. Take the Cinci-nasties.

What do you think? What about the over in the second game too (I'm getting dangerous, yet again).....

Redemption Saturday

2006-01-07T14:01:00.000-06:00

Dee Brown locked down the bank on me on Thursday, but I'm breaking back in today with the Hawkeyes getting a bucket at home against the Illini.

So far, so good.

And, can anybody stop the Northwestern Wildcats? The Cats are purring already up 12 at the break with the 7.5 points of cushion waiting for them.

Wild Card Saturday / aka: Take off your Undies, were going OVER!

2006-01-07T12:12:00.000-06:00

Finally, fun NFL things to think about outside of Vince Young's draft position, unusual coaching swaps (baldy-mustached-Childress from Randy Moss' former haunts to TO's former haunts, Big Herm from a bad east coast team to a not-so-bad midwest team), the Bears' domination of the postseason awards (so far; something tells me Kyle aint getting no MVP), and the viability of Vick-el-Marcus as an ankle-stomper in the pros. We've got PLAYOFFS.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wow, what an intriguing set here. The Chrissy-Simms-led Bucs are hosting the Redskins, led by coach Janky Spanky (you need to see the Portis clip here). Both with decent defenses, and offenses that really need the run to be on for them to get going. I believe that the 'Skins are feeling pretty disrespected, as they are one of the hotter NFC teams right now, at being set as the dog here.

I'm taking Redskins +1. But the play I like more on this game is the Over (36.5). These teams have been scoring some points in recent weeks, with the Skins averaging 33 points over their last 3 games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Is anyone else fed up with the the jock-riding of the Pay-Tree-Ots? The Jags are getting no love because of their easy schedule, but they did take down Cincy, Pittsburgh, and Seattle (granted, all were Week 6 or earlier). Supposedly, the Patsies are preparing for a double-headed QB (with both Gerrard and Big Byron available), which hopefully should confuse them. Not to mention, B-leftwich is probably the most capable play-while-injured QB outside of Mr. McNair, as he has been doing this stuff since college.

I think because it's greater than a Touch, you have to take the points. Jaguars, +7.5.

But, just like the early game, you have to look at the totals. 37 points is a tad low, and I can see these teams putting up an offensive show that you aren't prepared for. Of course, the playoffs are always more defensive, and yes, Billy Belichek is a defensive genius, but I believe that the Jags and Pats will both be able to score on the capabilities of their QBs. Take Over 37.

Take off your Undies, we're going OVER....

So, what does one do? I think, because the line is above a TD, you have to take the Jaggies.

Friday Night Lights - THE Association

2006-01-06T10:14:00.000-06:00

I know, JoeJacksonHasShoes has already started up with the playoff banter, but I'm going to ignore it for a day. Why? It's back to the NBA, baby.

Washington Wiz at New York Knickerbockers UNDER 211.5
The Knicks have been on an unbelievable points tear, with their last 11 games all hitting the over. The Wiz have given up season highs in their last 2 games (123 to Houston, 128 to MIA). But I cannot believe that these 2 teams are going to keep it up. They met on November 4, and the final score was 86-75. Under it.

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee -5.5
The Bulls are on a memorable streak, losing all of their last 8 games (both straight up and ATS). The Bucks have not been playing particularly well either, but Tyson Chandler is out with a bum ankle. This midwestern battle will be won, decisively, by the sons of Mil-Aah-Waah-Keee.

Give me thoughts.......

NFL Playoffs

2006-01-06T08:45:00.000-06:00

I need help sorting this out.

The Pats are giving the touch and the hook against JAX. Conventional wisdom from every prognosticator is to take the Jags and the donation. Why? The Jags are inconsistent against the spread, squeezing out a straight-up win against the Niners and then a routing win their season finale. They have a quarterback who was mediocre to begin with coming back after a 5-week layoff to play on the road, in cold weather, against the best playoff team in the modern era. Advise.

Again, despite the line being tilted in the BUCS favor, everybody is in Joe Gibb's racecar. Certainly, they've ran off five straight and have covered the number in their last three, but, they are on the road, on a shortweek in the playoffs. Same love affair exists with Carolina. So which of these two is a one-night stand and which is true love?

Lastly, I do like the Steelers at the Bengals. But, again, posters unanimously like the bengals to be tamed at home. The Bengals have been the bungles at home, going a mediocre 5-3 (with the notable loss to Bills); however, they were shredded last week at a place where no team has won in December since the 1st Bush was in the White House (long before Gina Davis). The Bungles did beat the Steelers straight-up in steeltown.

Go Bears.

hanging up the six-shooters

2006-01-06T08:28:00.000-06:00

happy new year to all.

last nite i mustered up the courage to limp back from a demoralizing og bowl season (my stone cold, lead-pipe locks included South Carolina and Michigan less their respective numbers along with the domers getting four and half lucky charms from the bucknuts). with that said, i saw more than green GWB saw in the oil fields of iraq with michigan state getting 7 points at Chief Illiniwek's teepee.

despite a ridiculously ugly performance by the heartless spartans, they were still down by only 5 with 32 seconds to play. so, the seasoned og'er is running possible scenarios on order of probability. 1. illinois gets a 2 point bucked to extend to seven, msu comes down and gets a quick two. i win my bet. 2. msu gets a stop, comes down gets a quick two/three, or misses and then fouls, illinois hits one of two charity shots. i win my bet. In all scenarios, never did I dream up of Richard McBride hitting a 3-ball from Row RR, Seat 6 with the shot clock expiring to extend the lead to 8, requiring a desperation heave by the spartans (which would be a miss) then a foul to extend the lead to 10.

its fine to get beat by Dee Brown gong off for 34. but to lose the 7 to Richard McBride? Who is he? Sounds like a cheeseball 80s dude vocalist, a la Don Henley, Peter Townshed. As a matter of fact, I think McBride opened up for the lame-ass Richard Marx concert I took Julie McCabe to in the 11th grade hoping to get laid.

With that said, I am now convinced that 1. MSU hoops team has less heart than its football counterpart (is that possible?)2. IL is the worst 15-0 team in the history of sport. 3. I love Iowa on Saturday against IL whatever the number may be.

Thank you.

UCLA v. Arizona - unusual line

2006-01-05T21:15:00.000-06:00

OK, I know Ceddy Bozeman is out, and that Jordan Farmar is game-time decision, but the Bruins are getting 11.5 points, in Arizona? I mean, this is highly unusual.....

So, I headed over to wagerline.com, and check it out. This means that the heavy cash has been on the Bruins, but still the line has moved higher. I just don't know what to do with this.

So I bet it.

And just like that, College Basketball Season begins

2006-01-05T13:59:00.000-06:00

OK, so maybe it really started 2 months ago. But after a game as dazzling as that one last night, I know am fully able to move on to the other college sport. Yes, despite my loss of the Trojans giving the points, I was still quite satisfied with the game (not to mention the win of the over, as well as my Baz-inspired pick of Bobcats getting 7 against the Celts). Solid recap of Keith Jackson's best quotes from the game here.

Anyways, picks for tonight (from someone who knows very little about this 'college basketball' you speak of):

Michigan St at Illinois OVER 138
It seems to me that teams that are on a roll against weaker competition generally are prepared with good shooting, passing, and dribbling skills (the triple-threat, you might say). Also, early in the season, everyone knows how to play offense (since all these stars have been doing that since they first were able to dunk in the 3rd grade), but team defense generally doesn't come together until the unit has really played together. Therefore, I'm going to try out a streak of betting the overs, in this early season. Including this game.

Villanova at Louisville +2.5
This is Louisville's first ever Big East conference game, which is nice. Yay for Ricky Pitino, who is back in the conference where he started a while back. But really, this conference is good. They could conceivably get 10 teams into the tourney, which will ease the pain of the NCAA revoking their automatic BCS bid (we can dream, right?).

Anyways, while I think 'Nova is good, they have to be able to shoot from outside in order win. They have good guards, but the 'ville has some good inside play (Juan Palacios is a big boy, as 'they' say), and I give them the edge with the home-court advantage.

What do you think?

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WagerKing Picks

National Championship Game Pick

2006-01-04T16:06:00.000-06:00

Ah, so it's that time of year again, the time of year when USC gets on their Big-12-a$$-kicking, behemoth of a hoss named Charger and takes down the annual challenger, whomever it may be. Or is it the time of year when some under-dogging-it team from a sub-par conference actually rides their star to a miracle upset? Here, as I see it, are the results and chance of happening:

USC wins by a lot (covering) - 40%
USC wins a closer game - 25%
Texas wins a closer game - 25%
Texas wins by a lot - 10%

I have to go with USC, laying the points. But, in general, I don't like this game and this line. I really feel like almost anything can happen, and a saner version of me would stay away from it.

I do like the over of 69.5 though. That is something that I think will likely be broken, and you know that Petey Carroll will not give up any opportunity to run up the score.

My #1 prediction of this game will that it will be similar to the FSU v. VaTech game from 1999 (played on 1/4/00). As you may recall, FSU had Chris Weinke (aged 36 at the time, I believe) and Peter Warrick (friend of the Dillard's store), and very good defense. Va Tech had a very exciting athletic quarterback, and in that game, Ronny Mexico came out as potentially the most exciting college player of all time. I think that Vince Young will be unveiled to the world as an unbelievable athletic talent, and this game will show him to be

Incidentially, isn't it great that Laverneus Coles, who got thrown off that 1999 FSU team for the Dillard's incident while Peter Warrick got to stay on because Bobby Bowden can do whatever he wants in the NCAA, turned out to be a much better pro than Warrick?

Does anyone else remember this from last year? I highly enjoyed it at the time, and it brings back good memories. Also see this recap of some of the terrible Nat'l Champ half-time performances in recent years. FYI, I am regressing to this kind of stuff because I am sick of reading every single sports 'journalist' flip-flop at least 3 annoying (and formulaic) times on the "Trojans-have-never-faced-a-defense-like-UT's"/"USC-is-too-loaded"/"Reggie has been meeting with agents and is distracted" bandwagon. And yes, I just linked to a Skip Bayless column.

Michigan v. Nebraska

2005-12-28T15:56:00.000-06:00

So, Doing Lines is back after a brief hiatus. Thanks to the other members of the crew for upholding the site, for a little while....... For tonight's game, what to think?....

Michigan -10.5 v. Nebraska
ALAMO BOWL

This is an interesting line, for an interesting game between the 2 teams responsible for the BCS. Both teams are 7-4. Michigan lost to Ohio St, Minnesota, Wisconsiin, and Notre Dame, all bowl teams (3 of which are playing after 1/1/06). Nebraska's losses are also to 4 bowl teams (Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas Tech). But don't those losses seem worse than the Wolverines'? So, check the Sagarin rankings here. He's got Michigan, based on their strength of schedule in particular (the #1 rated schedule), as the #8 team in the nation, and Nebraska, with the 51st rated schedule, as the #42 team in the nation. Based on his predictions, 10.5 points is almost correct (should be closer to 11 or 11.5, based on his "Rating," but it's close).

So, what other factors should we look at? Honestly, I have no idea. The question is - does Nebraska's win vs CU indicate that maybe Billy Callahan is turning it around? Or is it just another representation of Gary B's final days?

My thought is to go with the Wolvies, despite Nebraska's history in San Antone'. What do you think?

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Other site predictions:
Wager King
Sedge Court Journal

Holiday Blowout....

2005-12-21T17:36:00.000-06:00

Best bet of the nite: Missouri with the 11 against Illinois.

Illini are due to have the bubble burst and with the exception of last year, they always play poorly in the border brawl.

And, for Bobcat Baz, time for him to be a little more pro-active in highlighting these nuggets in advance as opposed to the post victory jubiliation.

BobCats Strike Back!

2005-12-21T09:11:00.000-06:00

And put the hurt on the Bulls? What the heck? The Bulls should never be 11 point favorites against anyone. I know they beat the Celtics real bad the other day, but as last night's score tells you, that is just an aberration. For those of you not on the Bobcats Bandwagon (BB) get on it now. I've been riding the money train since the first game of the season. (where Bobs covered 8.5 on the Bulls)

donna summers and the NBA

2005-12-20T11:34:00.000-06:00

like donna sommers once crooned, the grizzles worked hard for my money last nite. two overtimes. just let chauncey hit a game-winner, lose by three and let gasol go trim his beard.

in other news, the packers did not work hard for their money.

i'm sure that bobcat baz earned some extra holiday juice last nite.

tale of woe, con't

2005-12-18T17:26:00.000-06:00

you can forgive the mis-click, or the forgotten confirm click, but can you forgive the over-rule?

the explanation: "bledsoe was hot. he was nfc offensive player of the week last week. " sure good logic, but anyone with football knowledge, bledsoe is anything but consistent. mercurial comes to mind. dude has a good game, then you know you can phone in 4-ints, a sack-fumble-recover-rumble-bumble-stumble, potentially drew henson appearance.

Tale of Woe

2005-12-18T17:15:00.000-06:00

This 0g'er was out and about getting an early start to his sunday of intermittent holiday shopping and score watching, when he sat on santa's lap and said, "all i really wnat for x-mas is a 6-banger..." santa, overtaken by this poignant request, gave some early holiday juice with a yuletide prognostication of,
"on chargers money-line, on steelers, on jets and on eagles. on bengals, and most certainly on washington..."

following santa's insight, i phoned in the chris chringle parlay to my girlfriend/on-line bookie. with a little bit of santa magic, my $50 six-banger was sure to yield 4-digit returns.

as i watched the returns, my heart swelled with holiday generosity, suddenly scorning the sales-rack for full-price merchandise. mike mcmahon was even back on my x-mas card list. while waiting in line at the jewelry store looking to reward my beloved on-line bookie/gf, i logged into teh account to do the math myself.

what to my wondering eyes should appear? but the poison pill of all sundays. the dallas cowboys. it seems girlfiend/og-bookie, over-ruled the 'skins and saddled up her horse to ride the cowboys (by the way, have you seen bareback mountain yet?). i dashed out of the jewelry store line almost as quick as athe realization that my santa special was submarined.

now waiting in-line at banana republic for another return.....

Cross-League Picks Today

2005-12-18T10:45:00.000-06:00

Well, I'm on board with Windy City for one of the League picks, but I've got an NBA-er to add to the mix as well:

Pit -4.5 at Minnesota
Again, Minnesota has played sub-par opponents in their pretty little win streak, and Pitt is finally ready to compete for a playoff spot (though it is almost out of reach by now). Roethles-burger is looking better (at least vs. Bears D), and their D should be able to contain Mewelde and Brad Johnson.

Seattle -7.5 at Tennessee
The Seahawks have a lot to play for in this game, including home field for NFC. They need to make sure that they aren't looking ahead to the Indy game next week, but I think they'll be focused on this one. If both these teams played their best games, the Titans would lose by 2 TD.

Ouch. 2 Road Favorites. Lets move on to the Association:

Denver -2.5 at Atlanta
OK, this Atlanta winning streak has got to stop soon. After creaming the Knicks a couple days ago (and a solid by-the-book pick by Baz the Man), they will be coming back to earth against the Nugs. The Hot-Karl-led Coloradans should take this one pretty easily.

OK, apparently I'm going with 3 road favorites....

What do you think?

Windy City's Picks for Sunday

2005-12-18T01:38:00.000-06:00

As a reminder, click here (or just scroll down) to see Windy City's Picks for today, posted earlier this week:

Windy City's Picks - NFL Math

Saturday NFL

2005-12-17T12:10:00.000-06:00

Nice treat, waking up this morning, on a saturday, and finding the League waiting for me. Kind of different feeling, really.

Tampa Bay at New England, Under 37 (now up to 38).
Really, I have no particular thoughts on the winner of this game ATS. I think the Pats are the more likely winner, but the Bucs have much more to play for. I do think, however, that neither team will score that many points. Pats are averaging 18 points per game against teams in the top 1/2 of the league in defense (YPG). And while the Pats D has been rough as of late, I'm sure Billy Belichek will have something up the sleeve for Chrissy Sims and the Bucs (who have averaged 13 pts over their last 3 games). I'm taking the under on this game (it started at 34.5, and is all the way up to 38 - partly b/c Brady is playing, of course).

Denver -8 at Buffalo
Well, the Broncos definitely have something to play for these days, competing with Cincy for the #2 seed in the AFC. Buffalo has nothing to play for, outside of the health of JP Losman, and the #5 pick in the draft (AJ Hawk?). Broncos Romp.

Anything else y'all like?

Golden State Warriors tonight

2005-12-16T15:00:00.000-06:00

Warriors giving 4.5 at Toronto:

The Raptors are the 2nd worst defensive team in the league (on a PPG basis), and the worst on opposing FG% basis. The warriors are a high-scoring team (8th in PPG), and while they don't have particularly good FG%, against the Raps this will jump up considerably. The Warriors do well against bad teams, are 6-2 ATS on the road, and 7-1 ATS after a loss. They are on the road, and they just lost. Come on Warriors, I need you. Baron, can you rescue me again?

What you think?

I actually like the Knicks Tonight

2005-12-16T07:46:00.000-06:00

Cuz they are underdogs (by 1) to the lowly Hawks. Are the Knickerbockers that bad? I know ATL has been been playing somewhat decent, but still. Look for the NYK's to take revenge for their back to back blowouts.

Late nite snacking

2005-12-15T20:26:00.000-06:00

Looks like Spurs less the trifecta will be a good main course.

I like seattle giving the same as a lite dessert. thoughts? houston is 0-3 ATS on the road after back-to-back.

Did you hear that Grant Hill was in the car with Russell and is back on the inactive list?

Tonight - What we like?

2005-12-15T18:41:00.000-06:00

I like the following:

Spurs -3 at Minnesota
The Spurs, even without Ginobli, have the potential to really take down the Land-o-many-Lakes. The key player in this game (as most SA games), will be San Antonio's Tony Parker. To what extent can he continue his hot shooting agains the Timber-puppies defense? I think he can keep it up - therefore, I'm giving the points and taking the Spurs.

FYI, I am predicting a major Minnesota meltdown at the beginning of January, when they have this schedule:
1/1: @MIA
1/4: DAL
1/6: @SA
1/7: @DAL
1/10: @MIL

Wait for it....

Denver +4 at Cleveland
Cleveland is playing poorly, and Denver is playing very well, getting a lot of production out of Melo. Take the Nuggs....

Any thoughts on HOU - SEA tonight?

Totally OT, somewhat inappropriate, but amusing (to me at least)

2005-12-15T18:32:00.000-06:00

Did anyone else read the AP article about Darrell Russell's death today? It contained the following description of the car accident that took his life:

Russell, 29, was a passenger in a car driven by former USC teammate Mike Bastianelli that went out of control about 6 a.m. and hit a curb, tree, newsstand, fire hydrant, light pole, another tree and an unoccupied transit bus, Lt. Paul Vernon said. [Full article here]

Were they trying to act out a scene from Grand Theft Auto? I'm sure tomorrow we'll hear about them clubbin' hos w/ baseball bats and stealing their coke.

I bet if it wasn't for that second tree and that damn transit bus, he would have walked away from the accident...

Please Help Me Understand The Line for the Hou/Sea Game

2005-12-15T10:36:00.000-06:00

I don't understand what happened with the Houston/Seattle line last night. The spread (at Sea -2.5) was already up during the third/fourth quarter of Hou's game with the Warriors. What would happen if T-Mac blew out his knee during the game? If Bruce Bowers got ran over by Yao?

As soon as the game went to overtime, I took Seattle. I know Seattle isn't that far from the East Bay, but don't lines usually post after a team has finished its game from the night before? BTW, the line has moved up to 3 now. Weird.

Another random observation, the guy that was calling the Hou/GS game was horrible last night. Tom Tolbert was OK I guess, but not really, but the play by play game was the worst. He did use the word dagger though so that was nice.

Coming Down to the Wire on HOU/GS Over

2005-12-14T23:51:00.001-06:00

Conflicted loyalties on this one, I've got the over, I believe Joe and Windy have the under. Let's go over!

PHX/DAL Support Group

2005-12-14T21:16:00.000-06:00

3.5 minutes to play and under still in jeopardy. after a quiet first half, they exploded for a 51 pt 3rd quarter and 25 in the first 4 minutes of the 4th quarter.

by the bye, long live grant hill.

Coach Ditka

2005-12-14T14:49:00.000-06:00

Are you a Grabowski?

BOBCAT ATTACK!

2005-12-14T11:46:00.000-06:00

Bobs getting +8.5. Take the 'Cats!!!!! Go Cats!! Gr!

Bulls all over the Raptors tonight. Take the Bulls giving 2.

You heard it here first, from the man who predicted the epic Hawks victory last night.

Resurrection Wednesday

2005-12-14T10:15:00.000-06:00

The boulder has been rolled away from the cave and the devil incarnate as a ron jeremy lookalike has been sentenced to cruise-ship shuffleboard. pat riley has triumphantly descended to the bench to guide shaquille and the best damn athlete ever to come out of Richards HS in Smoke Lawn, IL. As a further sign that the end of days of the association is upon us: Grant Hill will return to the hardwood. With that said, I expect Doc to run the point for the Cs, KiKi to play the 3/4 for the Nuggles and Gary Hogeboom to play "survivor" as the J-E-T-S qb this week-end. take the football jets and the 9 pieces of lumber.

has anyone seen any prop-bets on grant's return tonite?

Doing Lines late night - Cash rescued by B-Diddy

2005-12-13T23:55:00.000-06:00

Took the over of the Nets v. Wizards game earlier tonight. Not sure if you're into sports gambling, but 'taking the over' means that you hope the teams will score more points than the totals posted. Not less. Generally a bad sign when the star of the game (Gilberto Arenas) is out with lower back bruises. Also a bad sign when one of the teams scores 14 points in the first quarter, and the other team scores 13 in the second quarter. Needless to say.... I'm not even finishing the sentence.

Looking to make something on the day, I decided to double down on the nightcap - Warriors at Sonics. Warriors are a good team, but have not really been tested on the road. Seattle is a less-than-good team, with a couple recent losses in Sea-town vs. the Kings and Knicks. So I take the Warriors, thinking the FT they are getting is just a little bonus on top, incase it's close.

Well, the game is rolling along, and it seems to be a dogfight, with leads going back and forth. The W's have a little bit of a margin, however, going into late 4th. With 8 seconds left, the good guys are up 98-96 and Seattle is inbounding. But wait - Jason Richardson steals the ball! Really, quite a lot like havlicek (or at least how I imagined it on those old ads for Sports Illustrated audio tapes). A quick foul, and a trip to the line, and this baby is over. Right? J steps to the line, clangs the first. That's fine, I'll take the 3pt lead. Mr. Rich clangs the second. So now, instead of a relaxing 4 point margin, I'm staring straight at the Mariners and their sea-green three-pointing barrage, with just enough time left (7 sec) for a legit shot at a win. I'm praying for a brick, and Flip Murray prepares to give it to me. But a nice move, and a whistle later, and this game is tied. Ball is in Baron's hands with a couple seconds left, but he misses a tough shot in the lane, and we're going into OT.

Similar beginning to the story in OT - W's with the lead, but some ill-advised shots (enough with the shooting 3s, D-Fischer, and stay with your close-to-the-basket-turnaround-best-shot-in-NBA-history stuff - ok, to be fair, Fisch did have a nice game for the warriors..this time.), and back to back Nick Collison conversions (are you kidding me? aren't we done with the random goofily-large American white guys from middle-america colleges providing value? I thought Brad Miller had a monopoly on this position in the NBA), and the Sea-onics are up 105-107 (good thing I didn't take the under of 210). That's when Baron decides it's his game to win, or lose. He gets an assist to Michael Dunleavy (key getting 'leavy involved. Mullin probably required that after signing Coach's Son to a somewhat-ridiculous contract. On a very-related note, check the quote at the end of this article, where Mikey-D compares Duke to N'Sync. Not smart, Mike. That's not going to get any fans to Duke.... well, maybe he's going for the house-wife / under-15 groupie crew.... But thinking about it, the Duke-N'Sync comparison is actually quite insightful, on several levels...), jacking up a unwarranted 3-ball, watching Ray-ray almost hit a back-breaking three of his own (only to come out), and then, in the money-saving play of the evening, dropping a 3 with less than a second left, to bring it on home.

Thank you, B-Diddy. I owe you a couple.

Hawks Take Flight Tonight...

2005-12-13T10:15:00.000-06:00

And cover against the Cavs. (+12.5) The Cavs should never get that many points. Or should they? I don't think the King gets up for these type of games. Discuss.

My favorite gambling team is playing tonight - the Bobcats. Only getting 2.5 at Denver. Gosh, I think the gambling community might be jumping on the Bobs bandwagon.

I'm still pissed I missed betting on the Bucks game, god damn, that line last night was like unleashing DoingLines at Zanzibar Cafe at the Aladdin, too much is not enough! I would have bet my IRA on that game. Thats what happens when you get burned on Sunday and give up gambling for a few hours.

Giving Thanks

2005-12-13T09:04:00.000-06:00

Wanted to send along my appreciation to WindyCity as his NBA parlay kept some wind in my sails despite the Falcons/Aints cruising past my under

NFL Math

2005-12-12T22:36:00.000-06:00

It's midway through the 3rd in tonight's MNF contest, yet I'm focused squarely on next weekend's pigskin matchups. Here's how the early lines add up in my mind:

SD +7.5 at Indy -

Last week's win clinched Indy a bye into the Super Bowl and an invitation for Peyton to wear his flip-flops during the White House visit

+ Meanwhile, LT and company need a W to break from the pack of Steelers, Pats, and the other AFC paper tigers

= Take the Bolts. In fact, take every playoff-sniffing team the Colts face from here on out that get to carry 7+ points with them in their back pocket (Seattle next week)

AZ -1.0 at HOU -

Houston fans will riot if the Texans blow their lead in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.

+ While AZ has no reason to win this game, they have fewer reasons to lose.

= Take AZ.

PIT -3.0 at Minny -

Steelers are the best losers of 3 of 4 in the NFL

+ Minny is the worst winner of 6 in a row in the NFL

= Take PIT and give the points. Vikes come spiraling back to earth on Sunday.

NBA: I love this game...when MNF blows

2005-12-12T14:53:00.000-06:00

It's days like this that I thank God for the NBA. I mean when MNF throws you a dog like tonight's Saints-Falcons (-10.5) match up, it's nice to know that you can always scroll up to the 700s on your DirecTV box (provided you forked over the two bills for the NBA package) and catch a decent mid-season clash on the hardwood like Dallas vs. the suddenly resurgent Lakers.

But who am I kidding, if it weren't for the fact that my online gambling account begins to feel neglected if I don't throw down a few three bangers during the work week, I (and the rest of America, I imagine) wouldn't give a rat's a$$ about pre-Christmas (hell, pre All-Star Break) hoops games.

So, if you run out of fingers on which to count Mike Vick rushing touchdowns this evening, might I recommend the following diversions:

Check out the Bucks +2.0 tonight over the dreadful Knicks. Yes, the Knicks are finally home again after having played 13 of their first 19 games on the road and yes they are playing better ball of late (played tight against the Clips and Phoenix last week). But still, the Eastern Conference's Central Division is 30-7 against the other two divisions (Atlantic and Southeast). Milwaukee, in particular, is 7-0. So, when I see a Central Division team GETTING points against a 6-13 Knickerbocker squad, I'm like Eddy Curry at McDonald's--I'M LOVIN' IT.

Also, worth considering tonight are the Lakers +7.5 at the Mavs. Phil has the Lakers playing their best ball since before Kobe tasted Eagle County's finest...okay, maybe that's a exaggerating a bit, but they have won 4 of 5 (including 3 of 4 on the road). LA is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, while the Mavs have lost 3 of 4 ATS at home.

Touching Sunday Moment....

2005-12-12T08:26:00.000-06:00

How many of you are on the 16-0 Colts bandwagon, but still thought they'd sneak by the Jags by less than 9 cups of juice? Our ranks had probably thinned by the time the margin reached 26-3 in the fourth quarter.

In a poignant moment, David Garrard pointed to the sky and mouthed "if i convert it, you will win." Instead of bringing out the ol high school soccer player and giving us a vanilla push, DG bulled up the middle for the two point conversion, pointed at me right through the CBS camera, and yelled "that's for your joejackson, that's for you."

onward to victory with the Pats minus the 28, the Dolphins with the points I didn't need and the potent Raven office the beneficiary of two scores.

thoughts on MNF? this match-up is almost as compelling as touched by an angels re-runs. i need some action to keep my interest (a la packers v. lions).

NFL Picks - Slim Pickin's

2005-12-11T10:11:00.000-06:00

On an average NFL weekend, I'll really like about 5 or 6 of the lines that are posted. Every month or so, I'll take a look at the Sunday lines, and decide that there are about 8 or 9 that are particularly tasty. There is rarely a weekend where only a couple lines are appealing. Unfortunately, this is one of these weeks. I present to you, today, which couple of lines are the only ones that are appealing to me....

Patriots -4.5 at Buffalo
This is the juciest line I've seen this week. The Pats are in the point of the season where they are really getting desperate. Buffalo is at the point in their season where, if they can keep losing, they'll get in the Matt Leinart sweepstakes (Reggie, sorry to report to Buffaloians, will be in New Jersey or SF). Too bad I didn't get this one when it was at 3.5 pts...I hope you did.

Panthers -6 vs. Tampa Bay
Again, one I wish I jumped on at the open, when it was -5. Carolina is getting Peppers back for this game, and they will finally have their first chance in a couple games to really flex their offensive muscle. TB has been embarrassing, scoring only 10 against the saints. Both teams will be excited for this one, but I have faith in the Del-homme-led Ca-Pants. Something like that.... Fun irrelevant fact for this game: In both teams' last 4 games, they are both 3-1, with their only losses (both) coming to the Bears.

Kansas City +3 at Dallas
This is the toughest of these 3 to pick, but I like it just b/c of the streaks these teams are on. KC just took down Denver, as part of their current 3-game winning streak. The 'boys have lost to both Denver and NY Giants, for their 2-game losing streak. Take KC and the points (and give up the vig).

What do you think about these?

Saturday's Association - NBA bets I like

2005-12-10T12:11:00.000-06:00

What is it that we likey today?

Denver Nuggets Pick'em at Orlando Magic
The Nugs have been on fire recently, and the 'lando magic have not been. Magic have lost 5 in a row, including the last 2 at home, and the Nuggets are on a 3 game winning streak. The nuggets appear to be finding their offensive stroke, averaging 104 pts per game in their last 5, after averaging less than 98 in their entire season before. Take the Melos.

Phoenix Suns +3.5 at LA Clippers
Suns are absolutely on fire, winning 9 games in a row (and 6-3 ATS in those 9). On the road, they are 4-1, and 5-0 ATS. Clips have won 3 in a row, and are a good home team, but the Suns are even better on the road. Finally, Corey Maggette is doubtful for this game. Take the Suns and the points, and maybe even money-line it.

PHI 76ers at NJ Nets Over 196
On the road, the 76ers are a poor defensive team, giving up 105 pts per game. The NETS are decent at home, giving up 95 pts per game. But the most important stat I've found is O/U on days of rest. Teams that are tired will generally give up more points (on the premise that defense is harder to play than offense, and more tiresome). Both Philly and NJ played last night, and combined these 2 teams are 7-2 Over on 0 days of rest. On 0 days of rest, Philly's defensive gives up almost 111 points per game, and NJ gives up over 96 points per game. This is a special of mine.

Bet it with me. What you think?

Is this true? - Sports Gambling's "Black Sunday"

2005-12-08T01:51:00.000-06:00

Honestly, from my southern perch, I didn't notice that so many favorites covered... Check out the link - HERE.

I'm not going to lie, though. The US-based msnbc actually quotes the Brit as saying "favourites" while the text of the article writes it as "favorites"... Isn't this some kind of racism/continentism or some thing like that?

Sorry. On another note, upcoming picks:

Bears getting points is always a good bet, unless they're playing the colts or the bengals. Take bears over pitt.

THe trojans giving points is always a good bet in a title game. Pete will ring this one up.

Bet against The Dame. Always. Even if Chucky is their coach.

And stop trying to sell us the Joe-Pa v. Bobby-B matchup. F FSU, and their racist spear-throwing, barn-burning, back-stabbing (in honor of reggie white), terrible offense. F this matchup.

And finally, the BCS. I love it how some people (admittedly few) are saying "the BCS got it right this year." Please stop with it. Can you name me any system in the world, that could not actually 'get it right' this year? Don't people understnad that we can't compare the BCS to the old-school bowl system, but rather to what could be?. What happens if PennSt wins that game vs. Michy? No matter how you look at it, as in recent years, the BCS most-clearly would have got it wrong.

Ok, one more rant. Plenty of people have argued for the inclusion of Notre Dame in the bCS games, and a s a point, they have complained about Oregon's opponents, and most specifically - that Oregon plays in a weaker conference. Please, to all of you, can you name me a strong conference in college football this year? The SEC? Absolutely not. Name three offensive stars in that league, and I'll give you a free po'boy (or a credit for a future one). The Big Ten? Penn St. almost lost to several teams, including sucking a large one against northwestern (grr). Ohio St lost a nice game to texas. So then, the big 12? Name me any other big12 performer that can make any impact on a team's wins and losses besides a) Vince Young, and b) Katie Hnida. ACC? Clearly, thats a negative. Talk to Franky-jowls-Beamer about that one. Or Chan Gailey. (incidentially, the chan-ster has his own site at www.coachgailey.com, which is really a thrilling read. Thanks, Gailey web-master team, for staying on that one). What have we left? Big East? Hmmm, quite certain that's been relegated to division 1-AAAAA for football purposes. I think the Bill-Laimbeer All Stars could take down some of those big east gridiron teams. So why not the pac-10? Name me a conference with better offenses than the Pac?

Conclusion - bet SC against anyone they play in a natl title game. rambler out.

Did Anybody See the Score of the Suns Game Last Night?

2005-12-07T12:30:00.000-06:00

Man, I could have retired if I had teased the Suns - 44

Association News

2005-12-07T12:21:00.000-06:00

I hit a nice little bet with the Cavs last night. Feeling lucky, so I am doubling up with Laker -2.5 at Raptors. I got the line at 2.5, its moved to 3.5 already. Woo hoo, I guess there are other idiots out there. I don't understand NBA lines - it seems like about 2 teams get really really big lines no matter who they play - Spurs, Miami, and the rest of the league has a lot of parity in the lines. I know the Lakers aren't great, but they are playing pretty good right now and are going against the worst team in the league (based on TOR being underdogs to the Hawks)..so the line starts at only little more than one basket?

I don't understand, can somebody enlighten me?

Thanks

This is why we watch

2005-12-06T10:22:00.000-06:00

Last nite's under was supposed to be gauranteed, more certain than Madonna's next album or Jessica and Nick. Until Mike McMahon crashed the party. 3 defensive touchdowns in the first 30:14 minutes? How good does the Bears offense look now? As the old addage goes, no offense is better than bad offense. Yes, that's what pro football has devolved too.

But to "why we watch..." Why did I not go to bed early and miss Will & Grace re-runs? Because I was waiting to see if the you, a member of those legion of teasers who slapped and tickled the 'hawks and the under, would find their pot of gold. The outcome looked bleak with a 42 number with 14:46 left to play in the 3rd, but then the game transitioned to the type of low-risk, run control game that we all expected. But, when the outcome looked secure, how many folks had that last miller lite in the fridge while watching Mahe take a punt return and ski downhill, almost breaking for a score and dashing the teased under. And then the last second drop by Chad Lewis at the goal-line. God bless gambling and each and everyone use. Everytime a viewer watches all 60 minutes of a Monday nite blow-out, an angel gets her wings.

Sports gambling nightmare

2005-12-06T01:39:00.000-06:00

In a city, far, far away from what's going on, with no television access. Money on game, no knowledge. All I have is Baz, telling me how ridiculous the uniforms of the home team are. So, nothing to go on, outside of this - 35 - 0 at half. AT HALF?? The under of 41 is no longer looking so good. Neither is the under of 69. So, what to do? Do you in-game-hedge it? What do you do? No, the offense isn't even playing that well. you know the story - defensive touchdowns killed us.... F this S, Fr**d.

Going to Miami....

Benvinedos al ME-AMI!!!

Weather Advisory!!!

2005-12-05T13:15:00.000-06:00

2-4 inches of snow expected in philadelphia tonite.
obv. that favors seahawks groundgame, but can the sally seahawks win in cold/snow? the weather obviously affects the O/U, so get on the under before it drops like the mercury.

Pick O' The Day

2005-12-05T09:08:00.000-06:00

Weird line of the day. Mavs -1.5 over Bulls. Bulls are playing uneven basketball right now. Take the Mavs.

Time to start betting against Jake

2005-12-04T22:45:00.000-06:00

Damn, the mistake cost me some minor cash today. It may be time to start going against him, with 3 picks in his last 2 games...?

Joe Jackson - whats on tap on the college hoops circuit this week? Anything in the southwest that intrigues you?

Buffalo Bills - Miami Dolphin pain

2005-12-04T15:40:00.000-06:00

Ouch, with the bills having a 21 point lead early in game, I thought the money line bet over the dolphins, at +200, was at a solid point. I was wrong. Sage Rosenfels? Are you freakin kidding me? Oh my....

Drunk Blogging, and NFL Picks

2005-12-04T04:49:00.000-06:00

Drunk Blogging now, well at least mostly, combined with inability to sleep (incidentially, what would that be called, anyways? Drogging? Blunking? If they handed out awards, would they be the Blunkies? Can we get a ruling? An entire Blunkosphere is waiting to find out. Was this rant too sports guy-ish?)....... ANywyas, the picks this week, sorted by most obvious...

Broncos Pick'em at Chiefs
Arent the Broncs basically the 2nd best team in the entire NFL right now? I know the Plum-kid (who, along with the 'stache, is apparently a popular limp-wristed icon) can't be trusted, despite his turnaround, but the chiefs lost to buffalo a couple weeks ago. BUt then again, I'm having trouble with native american themed teams this weekend. F'n racists.

Patriots -10 vs. Jets
Wow. This will jump-start the pats drive to the playoffs. But what's more importantly, is that the jets are 0-6 ATS on the road. Vinnie-the-INT will be throwing them, and golden kid tommy will easily dominate the n-o-d-e-f-e-n-s-e-j-t-e-s....

BAZ THE MAN SPECIAL:
Vikings -2.5 at Lions
This one jumped a half point down, so now I'm on it. The Baz man is too busy studying for the upcoming bruin matchup in the southwest, so he won't be able to observe this game that he so confidently selected. But I'm on the Boat-wagon. Roll vikes roll.

Cincinaasty +3 at Pitts
Roth looked bad against the colts, and that wasn't just their d. I mean, yeah, they did get lots of pressure on him. But still, he wasn't making the throws that he made earlier this year or last year or with Mia or any other time in his life. Cincy will be able to throw deep on pitt, I'm convinced, and I see them putting up a good number.... what's the O/U on $ value of fine for today's celebrations? I set it at $10g. What you want?

Panthers -3 vs. Falcons
Panthers have had some tough matchups recently. LIke the bills. But actually, the falcons have had easier games, and they pulled the rarely seen bay-bay two-fer, losing to Tampa & Green in back-to-back weekends. Their Mooch-firing, Millen-enabling game against D-Twa' means nothing. Take del-home-team. yeah baby.

hail mary

2005-12-03T23:07:00.000-06:00

heaved it with fsu moneyline and uconn getting points.
after foolishly believing in a team that wears powder blue and another that is the 2nd best offensive to gary crowton. i just bought the www.firegary.com URL (at halftime).

NFL? bengals getting 3 and the hook.

Texas v. Colorado - Dog is Chained

2005-12-03T14:19:00.000-06:00

or Ralphie chained..... 49-3, 4 minutes into the 3rd quarter. At least the over of 60.5 is looking pretty good - though who knows, Mack may decide to call off the 'horns. There's no need to run up the score with the title game guaranteed (and no need for him to beg for votes, at least not this year).

Oh wait, 56 - 3, with about 10:00 left. In the 3rd Q. The over is almost there, so you'll be fine, Baz the Man....